Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/13

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Indiana Pacers Over 236 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Timberwolves road games keep going over – in spectacular fashion I might add – so I’ll keep betting them, especially against this Pacers team.

Despite Karl-Anthony Towns trying to reassure everyone that the Wolves haven’t reverted to their old selves, the evidence says otherwise. In their past 12 games overall the Wolves are allowing 120.6 PPG, and 124.5 on the road in that stretch. But with 10 of their last 13 road games having gone over today’s total, there’s no sense in complaining as over bettors.

Defense won’t likely be a priority in the style that this game should produce. The Pacers have mostly given up on defense, down to 25th in defensive rating. That’s created a run of 9 overs in their past 10 games and has turned them into the 2nd-best over bet for home teams. With the best road over team in town, this one should not disappoint as a high-scoring hors d’oeuvre to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl (1 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals +4 vs LA Rams (-110): 5:30 PM CT on NBC

Betting on this game creates a big left brain versus right brain fight in my head. Analytically speaking, the Rams seem like the right choice given their more complete roster, experience level, imposing defensive line, and the monster that is Cooper Kupp. But I can’t shake this feeling that tonight’s game will come right down to the wire, and in that situation, I would rather be getting points than laying them. Cincinnati has gone through this year’s playoffs by winning three one-score games, so it would make perfect sense for this one to be tight as well.

The one thing the Rams don’t have is Joe Burrow (11-2 ATS in his career as an underdog of 3-plus points), or the swagger that radiates from him and fuels this upstart Bengals team. No moment seems too big for this team, nothing seems to deflate them, they make excellent halftime adjustments (Bengals to win the 3rd quarter is +155 FYI, maybe toss a quarter unit on that since they have the best 3rd quarter point differential in the NFL), and you simply cannot count them out for those reasons.

Super Bowls aren’t won by fancy rosters or pretty football, case in point being what Eli Manning and the New York Giants did to the New England Patriots, twice. With all the intangibles on their side and Super Bowls typically close, I see Cincinnati being right there at the end. Road underdogs of less than a touchdown have crushed it ATS this season, so I’ll take the points here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Joe Burrow Super Bowl MVP (+220)

I consider the Bengals a live dog in this game, and if you made me pick a straight-up winner that’s who I’d choose. But Cincinnati on the moneyline is +180, so I’m getting an extra 40 cents of value here. If the Bengals win this game then Burrow is getting MVP, period. Ja’Marr Chase will be on Ramsey Island most of the game, and I don’t see Joe Mixon having MVP-level success against the Rams front. So it would take a Dexter Jackson-type performance (Google it) by a Bengals defender to steal it from Burrow. This strategy worked out last year with Tom Brady, so I’ll go back to it again tonight.

Degenerate Super Bowl Prop Bets

Coin Flip: Heads (-105)

First Sack Recorded: Sam Hubbard (+450)

Eminem Halftime Performance to be Censored: Yes (-170)

Last Score of First Half: Field Goal (-135)

Roughing The Passer Penalty: Yes (+105)

Rams Win First Half and Bengals Win Game (+600)

Tiny Nick is 589-470 ATS (+80.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.