Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Houston Rockets Over 224 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet SW
The Raptors have really been exploiting bad defenses recently, and tonight they face the worst of the worst in Houston.
The Rockets are dead last in defensive rating, efficiency, points allowed, opponent shooting, and pretty much everything else on that end of the floor. So a Toronto team averaging 114.7 PPG in their past 6 games should have no problem continuing to light it up. The concern when capping Rockets totals is determining what they’ll contribute, as their fast pace and volume 3-point shooting creates a lot of variance. But if they can get to their home average of 109.5 PPG, that should be enough to get this over the total.
Houston is one of the better home over teams in the NBA, with a 15-9-1 record to the over despite usually facing sky-high totals. Tonight’s is a little lower than usual, and I see a hot Toronto offense doing most of the work to get this one over.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Phoenix Suns Over 233 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
It’s pretty simple: If the Bucks are going to continually cross the 130-point mark on this road trip, then their games are going to keep hitting the over. Granted, those 3 straight offensive outbursts have come against teams with far less defensive ability than Phoenix, but the Suns have been slipping on that end and could again tonight.
Skilled and fast-paced offenses have been giving Phoenix trouble lately, even at home, where they’ve typically been a great defensive squad. This is a matchup where both teams are top-8 in pace, top-6 from long range, and top-5 in overall offensive rating. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Devin Booker are on fire right now, so I’m seeing another shootout in this one.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Morehead St./Belmont Over 144.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Belmont is coming for revenge in this game, and when the Bruins are in a home revenge spot the best thing to do is get on the over and get out of the way.
Belmont hasn’t exactly lived up to preseason expectations of running over the rest of the Ohio Valley, already taking losses to the other two top teams. A big part of it is their defense that’s rated just 146th in the country, and it definitely showed in their loss at Morehead State 3 weeks ago. But this team is still capable of dialing the offense all the way up, scoring 85.3 PPG in their 6 straight wins since.
Morehead is actually one of the lower-scoring teams in the OVC, relying on a strong defense and slower pace. Except when they play Belmont that is, with that first meeting being their highest-scoring game of the season at 157 points, and the past 5 meetings averaging 152.6 points. I expect Belmont to be motivated to run up the score here, and for Morehead to get dragged into the up-tempo style that gets this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Arizona -6.5 @ Washington St. (-110): 8:00 PM CT on FS1
Washington State has been quietly building a nice record in the Pac-12 behind a solid defense, allowing just 57.6 PPG in conference play. But that’s been built up against a weak schedule, so best of luck against the Arizona freight train tonight.
The Cougars are yet to face the three teams above them in the Pac-12 standings, all of whom happen to be the best offenses in the league. Tonight they try to slow down one of the best offenses in the country that is averaging 84.2 PPG on the road in conference play, having no trouble against the other strong defensive teams. Arizona should continue to dominate inside against a Wazzu team that plays a guard-heavy rotation, and those easy buckets should allow them to pull away in this one.
The Wildcats are usually double-digit favorites when on the road in conference, so this is just too much respect being given to Washington State and their inflated profile. I see the Cougars getting a big shock to their system here from the pace and efficiency of the Wildcats, leading to another easy Arizona win.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Texas A&M-CC @ New Orleans -2.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Corpus Christi was supposed to take advantage of a down year for the Southland Conference and looked strong in their tough non-conference slate. But it hasn’t materialized in league play, and New Orleans is the obvious best team in the conference. The Privateers just beat A&M-CC on the road last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the final 9 point margin would suggest.
New Orleans also needs a bounce-back here after a bad loss at Incarnate Word in an obvious letdown/look-ahead spot. Behind the dynamic guard duo of Derek St. Hilaire and Troy Green, the Privateers should be able to defend home court here and knock off the Islanders again.
Tiny Nick is 578-465 ATS (+77.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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