Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/31

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via FanDuel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

It’s New Year’s Eve, so who wants to play defense? I’m sure both teams, who have tomorrow off, are more interested in plans for when the ball drops tonight. That should show up early in this one, as these teams race to another fast start in the first quarter. Adding to the lack of defensive motivation is the fact that both teams played high-possession games last night and had to travel. Notably, the Wolves have one of the highest margins to the over when they’re on a back-to-back, so plenty of points should be coming.

Minnesota is also fourth in first-quarter scoring this season, but it’s their defense that should be the story. Or lack thereof, since they allow 31.4 first-quarter points when at Target Center, most in the league. Even the Pistons should be able to capitalize on that, while their own horrible defense gets exposed as well. Expect both teams to score at will early tonight as they focus on post-game plans instead of the defensive end of the floor.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via BetMGM)

TCU +14.5 vs Michigan: 3:00 PM CT on ESPN

My gut tells me Michigan comes away with the victory here, but this teased number gives too much cushion not to take it. Getting an extra 5 points from the opener of 9.5 and covering a two-touchdown margin is great value with a TCU team that you just can’t kill. The Horned Frogs have been a persistent and lucky team that refuses to go away all season, and they’ve finally had time to rest and recuperate since the Big 12 title game.

I’ve thought the Wolverines were a bit inflated all season, playing a much weaker schedule than TCU, and looking somewhat fluky in their signature win over Ohio State. They’re also at a big speed disadvantage against TCU here, and I expect the Horned Frogs to take advantage of the fast indoor track on offense. If quarterback Max Duggan can make enough plays with his legs and continue willing his team to success, TCU should find themselves in a close enough game to cover this big number.

Ohio State +13 vs Georgia: 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is entirely a play to add value to a number where the movement is about as suspicious as you can get. Georgia is the top-ranked and most talented team in the country, dominant over just about anyone when they want to be. They’ve attracted all the attention in the betting market for this game, both from a tickets and handle perspective, yet the line is creeping towards Ohio State. That makes the regular spread in this game look like a number that books are begging you to take, but I’m going the opposite way.

With a tease into the two-touchdown range, I’m allowing for a wide scope of outcomes in a game that plenty of projections have as a field goal margin. It seems to have all the makings of a shootout, and if these teams trade scores I’d rather have a lot of points in my back pocket. I’d expect Ohio State coach Ryan Day to be ultra-aggressive in this game after being criticized for the opposite against Michigan. If that strategy backfires, so be it, I still get perhaps the most talented offense in the country with a wide-open back door on this number.

Ohio State/Georgia Over 55.5

I think the aggressiveness of Ohio State will be able to create a shootout environment here, and that gives the Buckeyes their best chance of being competitive. If the excellent Buckeye line can hold up against Georgia’s defensive front, it will give CJ Stroud plenty of time to find his receivers. Those are two of the best route-runners in the country, and should be able to get separation against a Georgia team that plays a lot of man coverage.

The Buckeyes should also be studying the tape of how LSU managed to put up 30 points against the Bulldogs in the SEC title game, mostly with a backup quarterback. But Georgia should not be considered just a dominant defensive team any longer, with their offense actually being the higher-graded unit. Expect them to attack Jim Knowles' zero-blitz schemes with their elite tight ends, plus a couple speedy receivers who are now healthy. There’s a reason this total was so high, and being able to get it under 8 total touchdowns is great value when I see a shootout unfolding tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1002-852 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.