Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/31

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120)

Alabama -6.5: 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

This is Cincinnati’s Super Bowl, no question about it, and the Bearcats will bring everything they have to this game. But I just don’t see it being enough, especially not with Nick Saban having this much time to prepare. The regular line here is a number that I feel is very much on point, and that’s backed up by the fact that it really hasn’t moved since the open. Alabama let Notre Dame in the back door late in last year’s semifinal, so I’m glad to get them under a touchdown here.

Alabama/Cincinnati Under 64.5

A big factor in this game is how Alabama will replace the production of their top possession receiver John Metchie who was injured in the SEC title game. That should dissuade the Crimson Tide from trying to force things against a Bearcats secondary that has 3 high future draft picks. Cincinnati is overmatched up front though, as the massive Alabama offensive line can impose their will on a defensive line where every player is under 300 pounds. I see Alabama using that advantage all game and grinding the clock in the process. This number gives 9 touchdowns of cushion, and I don’t see it getting close.

Michigan +14.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Michigan comes into this game with the best ATS record in college football, going 11-2 this season. Being able to move them to where I’m getting 2 touchdowns of cushion is significant value in my opinion, especially in a game that I see being a low-scoring slugfest. These teams are extremely similar, both in their strengths and weaknesses, so that should help to create a tight game. Part of Georgia’s autopsy from the SEC title game has been a realization that their schedule has not been very strong. Michigan is easily the 2nd-best team they’ve faced all year, and with Jim Harbaugh getting the big game monkey off his back, I see the Wolverines keeping this close if not winning outright.

Degenerates

NCAA Football Georgia vs. Michigan Moneyline (+245): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I mentioned how I see Michigan keeping this close if not winning outright, right? Yeah, I’m going out on a bit of a limb with this one but it’s worth a sprinkle at that big plus-juice return. I really wish this game had been played a week after the conference title games, with Michigan riding high and Georgia disheartened.

I have confidence though that Harbaugh has something special going this season, while the blueprint for beating Georgia was finally put out there by Alabama. The Wolverines get excellent defensive back Daxton Hill for this game, a key piece to defend the Georgia play-action passing game, and elite WR George Pickens. I see this as a rock fight with it being anyone’s game to win all the way through, and the magic continues for Big Blue here.

Tiny Nick is 507-395 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.