Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/30

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I actually believe the Wolves are live underdogs in this game given how poorly Milwaukee has been playing, plus their key injury issues. But they aren’t going to make it happen without a big night from Edwards, and I see another in store for him regardless of the game’s outcome. While this number has gotten slightly inflated off some strong performances, it still seems within reach tonight.

Defensive woes have been the story for Milwaukee lately, allowing 121.1 PPG in this 2-5 stretch. Those problems defending on the perimeter should continue tonight with top defender Jrue Holiday expected to miss this game. That opens the door for Ant to continue his torrid pace, as he’s been averaging 41.4 on this prop over his past 7 games. Expect a big contribution from Edwards here no matter the final result on the scoreboard.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/New Orleans Pelicans 1st Half Under 117.5 (-110; Odds via FanDuel): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports New Orleans

Targeting these first-half unders with New Orleans has become one of my favorite bets, especially when we find the Pelicans at home like tonight. Their defense is just excellent before halftime, allowing a league-best 53.6 points on average. They also play at a fairly slow pace at home, and their offense is only producing 57.4 points in first halves.

Philadelphia’s offense is worse actually, averaging just 56.7 points before halftime this season. They also average the league’s 4th-fewest possessions in road games, plus their defense is 9th in first-half points allowed. And this number is doing exactly what I want it to, ticking upwards as the full-game total rises slightly from the opener. It’s also more than 50% of the full-game total, and that’s just not how Pelicans games unfold.

These teams are also a combined 12-4 under this particular first-half total across their respective past 8 games. With a couple top scoring options in Brandon Ingram and Tyrese Maxey looking unlikely for tonight, a lot of offense should not be the story of this first half.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1001-851 ATS (+84.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.