Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Dallas Cowboys 1st Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
This line has gotten out of control with news of Tennessee resting starters for their winner-take-all game next week, and laying double-digits on the road in the NFL is unadvisable, to say the least. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities in the derivative markets, and this isolated total is definitely my favorite. Dallas actually does have something to play for, as they need a win here to stay alive for the division title and top NFC playoff seed. That tells me the pedal will be to the metal early and often in this game.
The Cowboys are a good bet, in general, to eclipse this total, averaging 13.9 points in first halves this season including 18.3 over their past 3 games. And since Dak Prescott returned from injury, Dallas is 7-2 over this total. They’re also one of the most up-tempo offenses for situation-neutral pace, and I want to take advantage of the part of the game where they’ll be trying to build a lead. Against a collection of backups from the Titans who have already struggled against the pass lately, I see Dallas pouring on the points before halftime.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Dallas Cowboys -3 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM)
This is another derivative line that’s far more attractive than the inflated full-game spread. I mentioned how Dallas should be looking to build a big lead early, and that runaway should start right away. The Cowboys are 3rd in first-quarter scoring this season, and 7th in first-quarter points allowed. With the mismatch on the field and all the motivation with Dallas, expect them to take a lead after the first 15 minutes.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Malik Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300; Odds via DraftKings)
Click carefully and be sure not to confuse this with Titans QB Malik Willis, because there’s a decent chance Tennessee doesn’t even sniff the end zone tonight. But there’s also a decent chance Cowboys third-string running back Malik Davis does find pay dirt. It’s unlikely that Tony Pollard will play tonight, and Ezekiel Elliott is no longer a feature back. Coach Mike McCarthy has said that Davis will be featured here, and with plenty of touches in garbage time I’m willing to take a shot that he gets in the end zone.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue Fort Wayne -2.5 @ Robert Morris (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The method for knowing when to back Fort Wayne is pretty simple, and it’s the biggest single factor here. The Mastodons are an excellent bet when facing a team with a lesser power rating, as they just continue to get it done against inferior opponents going back to last season. That’s what Robert Morris is no matter what metrics you use, with the Colonials 90 spots below IPFW in the latest KenPom ratings for example.
I also think it’s just a mismatch on the court, as the Mastodons bring a much better offense and defense to this game. Fort Wayne loves to launch from deep, and despite a below-average success rate this season, get to improve those numbers against the 258th three-point percentage defense. If those shots are falling, the Colonials’ 253rd-rated offense has no chance to keep up against the country’s 16th-rated defense. This one feels simple for a lot of reasons, so I’m laying the points here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1000-848 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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