Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/28

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kentucky/Missouri Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

I wasn’t originally going to play the total in this game when it opened at 153.5 because that was right in line with where I made the number. But apparently the market disagrees, so the drop of five full points gives me enough of an advantage to where I’ll take a shot on the over here. It should be a high-scoring affair with two solid offenses being driven by Missouri’s excessively fast tempo.

That was on full display in the last game for the Tigers, when Illinois couldn’t make a shot but the game still found its way to 164 points. Kentucky will not be as pitiful from the field as Illinois was in that game though. The Wildcats are shooting the lights out from deep this season at the eighth-best percentage in the country, and are up against the 280th three-point percentage defense. They should also rack up plenty of second-chance points against a bad rebounding team from Mizzou.

If Missouri determines tempo as the home team and it follows their typical style, there will be plenty of possessions for UK to exploit those advantages. I see the Tigers getting theirs as well being the country’s second-leading offense, but their poor defense should turn this into a shootout.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oregon Team Total Over 44.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

I don’t do a lot of betting on bowls like this because of the unknowns created by coaching changes, opt-outs, and the transfer portal. But those things are negatively impacting North Carolina far more than Oregon in this game, and it should set the Ducks up for a lot of success.

Certainly offensively, as the explosive Oregon attack looks to exploit a bad and undermanned Tar Heel defense. North Carolina was already 105th in points allowed, 115th in passing success rate, and 118th in rushing success rate, then they had two starting corners and a starting safety transfer out of the program.

Oregon is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, and benefits from Bo Nix opting in for this game. The Ducks should be able to name their score here, and will likely still have their own porous defense pushed by a high-powered UNC offense. That should result in a ton of possessions and a ton of points from the Oregon side in particular.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 999-847 ATS (+85.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.