Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/27

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics 1st Half Team Total Over 63.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

I think the Boston Celtics have pulled themselves out of whatever funk they were in for a couple of weeks. After eviscerating the Milwaukee Bucks and their excellent defense on Christmas, the Celtics look back to normal, and that’s probably bad news for their opponent tonight. The Houston Rockets come into this game with one of the worst defenses in the league, ranked 26th in efficiency and allowing 1.142 points per possession on the road.

Boston should tear them to shreds, but I’m mostly looking for that to happen before halftime here. That’s because Boston is the league’s top-scoring team in first halves, averaging 62.1 points. Houston is 24th in first-half points allowed, and that drops to 28th in road games where they allow 62.8 points on average. The Rockets are also on a back-to-back with travel here, having played a high-possessions game in Chicago last night. The Celtics should exploit those tired legs on a bad defense to post a big number before half in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) SC State @ Texas Tech -17 1st Half (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Texas Tech should absolutely smash South Carolina State in this massive mismatch on paper. The Bulldogs are one of the weakest offensive teams in the country, just 310th in offensive rating and 353rd in true shooting percentage. Putting that up against an elite Tech defense that’s 10th in efficiency is pretty unfair, and should lead to a Red Raiders runaway. But Tech has a huge road game at TCU coming up Saturday, and it would not surprise me to see them take it easy in the second half tonight.

So I’ll count on their steady success so far this season in first halves, where the Red Raiders are 7th nationally in average margin. Tech has played four other teams of SC State’s caliber this season, leading at the break by an average 22.8 point margin. The Bulldogs have only visited two other top-tier teams this season, trailing Kentucky by 19 and Wake Forest by 24 points at half. This should be an easy tune-up for the Red Raiders, especially with Daniel Batcho back in the lineup, so look for them to maximize their advantages early tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 998-846 ATS (+85.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.