Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/26

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Bowling Green/Minnesota Over 39.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN

I have quite a few more points projected for this game, so I’m seeing a lot of value on this low total. So has sharp money as they’ve bumped it up from the open of 36.5, and when totals move significantly in bowl season it’s wise to tail the movement. While the Gophers are down to third string QB Cole Kramer today, it will be all about the run game behind Darius Taylor.

That should carve up a Bowling Green defense that struggles on the ground. But the problem for Minnesota all season has been defense, so expect them to surrender plenty as well. The Gophers have revenge on their minds from their loss to Bowling Green a few years ago, so running up the score if they have the chance would also add points and help cash this over.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/OKC Thunder Under 228 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

While the Thunder have been able to exert their faster pace on most opponents this season, I think the excellent Minnesota defense will control things today. These are both great defensive teams in the top-5 of defensive rating, so that strength-on-strength matchup should hold down scoring.

That was the case in the first meeting, where both teams shot it fairly well, but they only reached 209 total points. That game had a pre-game total of 228.5 and the minor adjustment for today doesn’t feel like enough. With Karl-Anthony Towns questionable for this game and the teams sluggish off their Christmas break, offense doesn’t look like it will be the story tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1868-1670 ATS (+86.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.