Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/26

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit Each) Mike Williams (+140) and Keenan Allen (+150) Anytime Touchdown Scorer: 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

It’s incredible how much time these stud receivers have missed this season, making you wonder what the Los Angeles Chargers would look like if they had stayed healthy. Well, they’re healthy now and building up a rapport with Justin Herbert that’s been missing all season. You can be sure Herbert and his receiver room have been studying how the Indianapolis Colts managed to give up 630 passing yards and 7 touchdowns in their past two games.

Indianapolis had been lucky up to that point to avoid a lot of the NFL’s top passing attacks, so I’m considering the past two outings as more trend than mirage. You’d have to consider the Chargers to be one of the league’s best aerial offenses when healthy, which bears out in DVOA metrics if you adjust for the absences of Williams and Allen. I only need one to find the end zone tonight to turn a profit here, so I’ll count on the Colts defense to continue its slide and hope for both to cash.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/New Orleans Pelicans 1st Half Under 121.5 Points (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports New Orleans

I’ve talked before about the scoring splits in the NBA favoring more points before halftime, and this is a good spot to go against the grain of that trend. There’s been a big move on the full-game total in this one, pushing it up 7 points from the open and consequently dragging the first-half number with it. But it’s just become an overreaction for two teams that don’t typically follow that early-scoring trend as much as the rest of the league.

These are high-scoring squads overall, with New Orleans 3rd and Indiana 12th in points per game. But in first halves, they’re just 13th and 14th, respectively, combining for just 115.3 average points. Even more important is the defense that we typically see from the Pelicans early, as they’re 2nd in first-half points allowed. These teams already met this season in a game that saw 251 total points, but only 113 at halftime, so I’m expecting more of the same here and will take advantage of the excessive line move.

Degenerates

NBA Anthony Edwards Over 33.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Normally, I wouldn’t look to back Edwards on this kind of prop against a good defensive team in the Miami Heat. But a glance at the injury report shows the Heat with their all-too-familiar laundry list of banged-up players, including top defenders Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. That’s all I need to see to back Ant on a total that’s still somewhat discounted, and which he has surpassed 4 times in his past 5 games. Be sure to check the injury news for Miami as they’ve had the full Christmas break to get healthy, but Edwards could be in for another big night if the Heat are as depleted as they appear to be.

Tiny Nick is 997-844 ATS (+85.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.