Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/25

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total Under 24.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

It’s tough to look at this game from a side perspective because of Trace McSorley starting at quarterback for Arizona. Despite that, I still don’t want to lay a large number with Tampa Bay on the road, as the Bucs have the league’s worst ATS plus/minus in road games. But the main reason they fail to cover on the road is a failure to score, with the Bucs never eclipsing 20 points away from home this season while averaging just 14 PPG.

Here we find them as more than a touchdown favorite, which happens to inflate their team total up to this number. It’s also one of the higher isolated numbers we’ve seen for them this season, and Tampa is 12-2 under their respective team total on the year including 13-1 under this total. The Arizona defense is nothing special, but they should be able to disrupt the Tampa offensive line the way most teams have this year. I’m expecting a lower-scoring game in general, but will focus in on this isolated total given the trends.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Golden State Warriors Over 231.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

The Warriors are finally back home for the first time in almost three weeks, and despite no Steph Curry for them, I expect their offense to pick back up. Golden State scores 3.7 more points per game and 0.3 more per possession in home games this year, and that’s a stat which isn’t necessarily dependent on Curry’s availability. But their defense is atrocious right now no matter where they are, and Memphis should be out to make a statement in this one.

With the Grizzlies battling for the top spot in the West, they should be looking to show out on national TV and avenge their playoff loss to the Warriors last spring. Memphis has shown a tendency to keep their foot on the gas even in blowouts, and pace shouldn’t be an issue here with two teams that are top-10 in possessions per game. The Grizzlies also have Desmond Bane back now, the biggest key to their offense being able to go nuclear. I think they put up a big number here, with the Warriors scoring better at home, and that carries this game over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 995-844 ATS (+84.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.