Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/24

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120)

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs -3: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Backing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on inflated lines like today’s 10-point spread is just not a good idea. Mahomes as a favorite of 3.5 or more points is only 28-35-1 ATS in his career, but he is 17-6-1 ATS in all other situations. That’s why getting this line teased to a flat 3 points is so key. You can also count on Mahomes and the Chiefs to get it done outright in this game, as he’s an astounding 34-5 straight up in November and December for his career.

The Seahawks appear to be floundering on both sides of the ball and will be without Tyler Lockett for this game. Seattle also just played the 49ers, and only one team this season has won the week after facing San Francisco. They may cover the double digits since it is the NFL, but backing the Chiefs on a tease that takes the number right into their sweet spot is the safest way to go.

NY Giants +11 @ Minnesota Vikings: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

As long as the Vikings keep getting into these close games, I’m going to keep teasing their opponents to big numbers. Minnesota’s opponents this season are 13-1 to a teased number, so getting all of 11 points against a team with a plus-0.1 average margin is great value. This many points not only covers plenty of key numbers, but it adds cushion for a New York team that also plays a lot of close games.

The Giants are the second-best ATS team in the league and would be 11-3 this season when catching 11 points, including 4-1 on the road. And away from home is where Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has been most effective from a spread perspective, going 16-7 ATS in his career. Minnesota is in a prime letdown spot off last week’s emotionally-draining game and don’t need this one as much as the Giants do. I see that keeping the underdog in this to the end and covering a huge number by Vikings game standards.

Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers PK: 3:05 PM CT on CBS

This should be a hard-fought and defensive-oriented game, with Washington trying to stay in the playoff hunt and San Francisco jockeying for playoff seeding. But to get the 49ers at a pick’em price is too good to pass up with how this team has taken off since midseason. Winners of 7 straight, it obviously doesn’t matter who goes under center for this team as the defense and run game are going to carry them.

It’s that vaunted defense of the 49ers that has me most convinced they’ll come out on top here, as I see them making life miserable for Taylor Heinicke on a short week with cross-country travel. And the stout Commanders defense doesn’t worry me too much, as Kyle Shanahan is excellent at not only winning but covering against top defenses. I’m only asking the hottest team in the league to win a game at home where they’ve excelled this season, and that seems like an easy way to close this teaser.

NFL (0.5 Unit) NY Giants/Minnesota Vikings Over 49 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Who is going to stop who in this game? The Giants offense might be Saquon Barkley and a collection of no-name players, but I don’t see that mattering against a Vikings defense that can’t stop anything right now. Minnesota's opponents have averaged 31.3 PPG the past six weeks, and that has included three teams ranked 19th, 25th, and 32nd in offensive DVOA. Despite that collection of no-names, the Giants are still 14th in offensive DVOA and get a Vikings defense that should be physically and emotionally drained from last week’s insane game.

But New York’s defense might be even more vulnerable as they rank 29th in defensive DVOA, the perfect victim for a hot Vikings offense led by noon-window Kirk Cousins. The Giants have also been trending to the over lately, going 3-0 to the over against every team not named Washington in the past month. Vikings home games have also trended heavily to the over in recent seasons, and are 6-2 over this total on the year. Poor defense from both teams should be the story here, as well as being indoors on this intense weather weekend, so expect plenty of points on Christmas at US Bank.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ New England Patriots (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Something about this game and line seems too easy, and Cincinnati being heavily supported by the public doesn’t help, but I’m jumping in anyway. Joe Burrow and the Bengals just refuse to quit covering every week, as Cincy is 19-3 ATS over their past 22 games. That’s incredible success, and a run that I expect to continue against a deflated and overrated Patriots team.

I just don’t see how New England gets up off the mat after losing on the Las Vegas Lateral. They’re also dealing with injuries to both top running backs, and the Mac Jones-led offense does not scare me in the cold against a surging Bengals defense. Plus, the Patriots defense has been exposed in recent weeks by multi-faceted passing attacks, which is exactly what the Bengals bring to the table. If you’re overly suspicious of trap lines this is not the game for you, but I’m laying the short number with a team that covers everything.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Detroit Lions -2.5 @ Carolina Panthers (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This one feels kind of like a trap as well, but how can you ignore the run the Lions are on? It’s one thing for this team to cover as an underdog, which they’ve done pretty consistently in Dan Campbell’s tenure. But their valuation in the market has flipped and made them consistent favorites. The covers keep coming, though. It’s a 7-0 ATS run for Detroit, and that this point you have to take them seriously as contenders for a playoff spot.

While Carolina is also technically in the playoff chase by virtue of their embarrassingly bad division, that’s more accidental than anything. I can’t trust them here to keep pace with a hot squad, especially with the mismatch at quarterback. Jared Goff has actually been excellent this season and should be playing motivated off a Pro Bowl snub. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold is 109th out of 112 quarterbacks for ATS profitability since he entered the league. I’ll ride the hot team at the short price here.

NFL (0.25 Unit) Derrick Henry Over 110.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

You just have to trust the history and averages in this one. The past five games against Houston have seen King Henry average 195.6 yards on the ground, just incredible production from the league’s scariest runner. And I think we’re probably getting a discount on this total, with Ryan Tannehill being ruled out and Tennessee’s offense expected to suffer with Malik Willis under center.

But that was the case in Week 8 when the Titans visited Houston and Henry ripped off 219 yards. Tennessee will have little choice but to keep it on the ground, especially in the cold weather that’s also hitting Nashville. In those conditions, not many defenders will be eager to square up against the most physical runner in the game. The carries will definitely be there for Henry to eclipse this total against the league’s 24th run defense by DVOA, and I trust he’s in for another big day against a team he torments.

NFL (0.25 Unit) Jerick McKinnon Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Congratulations if you have McKinnon on your fantasy roster for the playoffs, as he’s carrying teams to championships right now. Most of that damage is being done in the passing game, as he has emerged as the passing downs back for Kansas City. He should be set for another solid performance here against a struggling defense.

Seattle is ranked 29th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, allowing 47.1 receiving yards per game. The Seahawks play a Cover 2 scheme more than just about any team in the league, which used to frustrate Patrick Mahomes. The KC QB has learned to take what’s given to him underneath now though, and McKinnon should be the beneficiary with too many other weapons for Seattle to account for. He’s already gone over this total 8 times this season, and should again as he faces one of the most forgiving defenses around.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys Over 47 (-110): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

What scares me as a Cowboys fan is that Philadelphia might just have the best backup quarterback in the league. That means we really shouldn’t expect much of a drop-off in offensive production from the Eagles -- if any at all.

Gardner Minshew will have the same excellent supporting cast, plus the return of Dallas Goedert from injury, and will be playing with a high level of swagger and motivation. He’s also facing a banged-up Dallas defense, with big trouble at the cornerback position, and Leighton Vander Esch now out as well. But the Cowboys offense is plenty healthy at the skill positions which, when combined with the worsening defense, is part of the reason why Dallas games have averaged 60.7 points the past seven weeks.

The past four meetings between these rivals have averaged 59 points, and Cowboys home games in December are on a 7-0 over run. In the other of the indoor games this Christmas Eve, I’m expecting plenty of points between two of the fastest-paced and most explosive offenses in the league.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 990-843 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.