Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/23

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves +10 @ Boston Celtics (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Celtics appear to be in a complete tailspin, with their only win in the past two weeks coming in a game they deserved to lose. But that’s not stopping the oddsmakers from pricing them as a massive favorite on account of their hot start this season, as they’ve been laying double digits in all 3 of these consecutive home losses. I’m buying into rumors of a flu going through the Celtics locker room, which we’ve seen wreak havoc on teams in every sport this fall.

Boston’s biggest issue recently has been a previously unstoppable offense sputtering out, which is good news for Minnesota’s defensive struggles. And Boston is not nearly the defensive force they’ve been in recent years, so the Wolves should be able to at least keep up. I’m not necessarily saying the Wolves are live to win this game, but it’s possible given Boston’s struggles. The Celtics are certainly mispriced here, though, so take the generous number of points with Minnesota.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Anthony Edwards Over 33.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110)

This is a discount from Ant’s total on the same prop from Wednesday, but against a team that should provide him more opportunity. The Celtics are a far worse defensive and rebounding team than the Dallas Mavericks, and as I mentioned has simply not been playing well. The illness impacting Boston has also hit Robert Williams, likely removing their only rim protector and allowing Edwards to score more inside. In what should be a higher-possession game than Wednesday, expect more opportunity for Ant to pad all stat categories and get over this total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

While Toronto finally snapped a long losing streak in New York on Wednesday, they’re still a team on a downward trajectory, especially compared to Cleveland. This is also a revenge spot for the Cavaliers after dropping both meetings in Toronto this season, but facing the Raptors back home should be exactly what they need.

Cleveland is an impressive 13-4-1 ATS in home games with a plus-4.8 cover margin, both second-best in the league. Compare that with the struggles Toronto has had in the states, where the Raptors are just 7-9 against the number, with the league’s sixth-worst ATS margin.

This should also be a good matchup for Cleveland to neutralize what Toronto does best, as the size of the Cavs should slow down the league’s most 2-point-reliant offense. That length should also help cool off Pascal Siakam, returning the Raps to their losing ways and earning another home cover in Cleveland.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers +5 @ Denver Nuggets (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

Without a ridiculous finish in their last game where Jamal Murray hit an improbable buzzer-beater, the Blazers would be 2-0 against the Nuggets this season. But Portland is 2-0 against this spread, which I think is a little inflated even with the Blazers traveling to elevation for the first meeting in Denver this year. While the Nuggets are an impressive 10-3 at home this season, they’re just 6-6 ATS when listed as a home favorite.

Meanwhile, Portland is the second-best ATS team when catching points on the road, and should have a few things working in their favor tonight. The first is that Murray is iffy for tonight with a knee issue, and Denver is likely to be overly cautious with him. The second is that as long as Damian Lillard plays, he makes Portland a live dog. Dame has tormented Denver in his career, dropped 40 on them in the last game, and is looking for a bounce-back after an ugly performance Wednesday. That should keep this game close the whole way, so I’m glad to get almost two possessions of points here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Wizards/Sacramento Kings Over 238.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The Wizards enter this game at the end of a long road trip, having just played last night in Utah, and are about to get a few days off for Christmas. That doesn’t sound like a situation where defense is going to be their top priority, making tonight’s opponent perfect for maximizing points. Sacramento now leads the NBA in scoring and offensive efficiency in home games. They’re also pushing it at the league’s third-fastest tempo, which is perfect for anticipating a defense-optional game.

Defense hasn’t exactly been a point of emphasis for Washington in general lately, with their collapse overall coinciding with allowing 118.7 PPG the past 15 games. That’s dropped them to 23rd in defensive efficiency both overall and on the road. But with Bradley Beal back from injury they can score with anyone, especially a Kings team allowing the third-most points in home games. If this game follows the script where both teams care more about holiday plans than defense, this game should fly over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 989-839 ATS (+83.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.