Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/22

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Evan Engram Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

While the weather for tonight isn’t what we’ll see impact the weekend slate, I still think it’s going to have an impact on how this game is played. Windy and rainy conditions in New York should prevent either team from throwing the football too far downfield, but that benefits the tight end position. With a weapon like Engram at his disposal, Trevor Lawrence should continue relying on him as he has in recent weeks.

The Jaguar tight end has averaged 10.7 targets, 8 receptions, and 81.3 yards in Jacksonville’s past 3 games, and should be set to continue that tonight. While the Jets have a strong defense and exceptional cornerbacks, they aren’t nearly as good against the tight end position. Checkdowns and shorter passes to Engram in the poor weather should get him over this relatively low total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Zonovan Knight Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Keep an eye on the injury status for Knight in this one, as he’s listed as questionable despite being a full practice participant yesterday. But if he goes, he’s the clear lead back in the Jets offense as Michael Carter is quickly getting phased out. Again, there’s a significant weather factor to the handicap here, as the Jets are likely to keep it on the ground tonight in poor conditions.

They’re also likely to keep it out of Zach Wilson’s hands, who shouldn’t be trusted in general but especially not in adverse weather. That will give Knight the opportunity he needs to continue impressing, as he’s gone over this total in 3 of his 4 games while averaging 63 yards per game. The top rushing threat for Jacksonville's opponents have gone over this total in 7 of their past 8 games, including both Dallas running backs last week, so look for Knight to have more success in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Louisville @ NC State -17 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Operation Fade Louisville continues with the Cardinals having reverted to form. Their only positive on the season was a black swan shooting night, and they immediately followed that up with more poor performances, at home against weak opponents no less. Now they go back on the road in the ACC, where they find a team built to issue blowouts. Louisville has played two conference games so far, losing by 27 and 23, so this number seems like a discount from that perspective.

Coincidentally, anywhere from 23 to 28 points is the average margin that analytical models are projecting for this game, so the discount looks even better. NC State has the offensive firepower you want against a team like Louisville, with the ability to run away behind three excellent guards who average double figures. Even with a suspect defense, a Cardinals team that’s 356th in offensive rating just won’t keep up, turning this one into a rout.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 988-837 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.