Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/22

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Missouri vs. Army -6.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

Underdogs have started off bowl season well, but Missouri should be a much bigger dog than they are here because of the tough spot they’re in.

The Tigers will be without starting QB Connor Bazelak for this game, along with top running back Tyler Badie, who’s one of the better backs in the SEC. Those absences will make it extremely tough for the Missouri offense to keep up with what their defense will surrender here. The fact that Army wants to run is no secret – their triple-option offense has racked up the 2nd-most rushing yards in the country. But tonight they face a Missouri defense that is 124th in rush yards allowed and should get whatever they want on the ground.

Army should be in a bounce-back spot off their loss to Navy, a result I’m throwing out because of the uniqueness of service academy games. The Black Knights should have all the motivation here given it’s the Armed Forces Bowl, and the matchup favors them heavily. This line has steamed a long way from the open, but at under a touchdown, I’m still comfortable laying it with Army here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona/Tennessee Under 154 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This should be a fantastic basketball game, and a matchup featuring two of the best defensive teams in the country should limit the scoring here.

Yes, Arizona is on a roll offensively, causing them to be 7-4 over this total on the season. But when they’ve faced teams who can slow the pace and play good defense, the Wildcats find themselves in lower-scoring affairs. Tennessee should be able to do just that on their home floor, where they’re one of the slowest paced teams in the country and allow just 0.773 points per possession.

Tennessee also tends to short-circuit offensively against strong defensive teams like Arizona, which is 5th in overall defensive efficiency. Their games against Villanova and Texas Tech saw the Volunteers have abysmal shooting performances, and that could easily happen again tonight against Arizona's length and athleticism. In a hard-fought game like I see this being, a total in the 150s is just too high, so I’ll take the under.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Arizona +2 (-110)

I’m really having a tough time understanding why the Wildcats are an underdog here. Arizona is now the top team in NET ratings and is by far the most talented team Tennessee has faced. If the Vols struggle offensively like they have against other tough defensive teams, Arizona should be able to get the road win. I’m sticking with my rule this season of not betting against Arizona, and getting 2 points here seems like excellent value.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Chicago State @ Drake -24.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT No TV

Drake is not the cover machine they were last season, but I still think they can take care of business against an awful Chicago State team. Drake gets the Cougars on the second leg of a back-to-back here, further limiting what’s already the 288th-rated defense in the country. Their offense that’s 344th in scoring and 348th in shooting won’t be able to keep up if Drake decides to pour it on.

I’m cautious about this one because the Bulldogs are likely without Roman Penn for this game, and he is a key to their offensive success. But that really might not matter against a team as bad as Chicago State, so this number is worth a play for me.

NCAA Basketball Oral Roberts/South Dakota St. Over 163.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This game definitely sets up as a track meet, with both teams wanting to get out in transition and SDSU playing at a frenetic pace. The Jackrabbits are also well-suited to take advantage of ORU’s biggest defensive weakness of defending the interior. SDSU takes 65% of its shots from inside the arc, and ORU is 262nd in two-point field goal defense.

But Max Abmas and the Golden Eagles will have no hesitation to launch from deep, as they take the 3rd-most attempts from long range and SDSU is 257th in defending the three. These teams put up fireworks in their games last season, averaging 180.7 PPG over the three meetings. Two hot offenses and struggling defenses could easily make for a similar output tonight.

Tiny Nick is 498-384 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.