Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/21

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Smart money has been all over the Rams in this spot, even at the awkward number. I’m in complete agreement because I fully believe the Saints are frauds. They’ve played arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL and are still only 7-7 on the year. New Orleans has benefited from playing 7 games against teams in the bottom-10 of overall DVOA, and still only went 3-4 ATS in those games.

They also have just two road wins on the year, winning games where they faced Bryce Young and Mac Jones. So going up against this red-hot Rams squad is going to be a big shock to their system, and I think it results in a comfortable win by LA. Being that this is a short rest situation, I’ll trust Sean McVay who is 8-1 ATS the past 9 such games over Dennis Allen who is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in his career.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Saints/Rams First Quarter Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Both of these teams are about average for first quarter scoring, but considerably below average in first quarter points allowed. The Saints are expected to have Rasheed Shahid and Chris Olave back for this game, so I’d expect some aggressiveness out of New Orleans against what is still a weak Rams secondary. But the Saints should have no answer all game for Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp as they struggle to stop the run and cover the slot. Both teams should get in scoring position early, and I think they capitalize for plenty of first quarter points.

Thursday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 66.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Cooper Kupp Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 19.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Cooper Kupp Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)

0.25 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – AT Perry Over 1.5 Receptions (+115)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Memphis Grizzlies Over 247.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

Memphis has been one of the best under teams this season, but you have to throw out a lot of those results without Ja Morant available. The Grizzlies star returned with a bang this week, and his presence will be a big boost for a team that’s buried in the offensive efficiency ranks.

It doesn’t take much to score against Indiana’s so-called defense, especially with the Pacers on no rest here. Memphis is an average team for tempo so they won’t drag the pace down here, and we should see a typical Indiana game as a result.

NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Clippers/OKC Thunder Over 235.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

The offensive turnaround for the Clippers is real, as the month of December has seen them average 125.3 PPG and win 9 straight. Even being without Paul George last night didn’t slow them down too much. That puts them on a back-to-back here against an up-tempo Thunder team that is one of the best overall shooting teams in the league.

The Thunder have been fairly profitable to the over in home games at 8-5, and the road is where the Clippers tend to have higher-scoring games. I’ll bet on the improved LA offense to help fuel a shootout here given their tired legs.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ball St @ Minnesota -11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on BTN+

Sometimes I don’t know what to make of this Gophers team because it always seems like the other shoe is about to drop. That’s the history of Gopher sports for you, but until that actually happens this team is a wagon worth riding. Minnesota is now 10-1 ATS with a plus-6.2 average ATS margin, very impressive no matter how you look at it.

While that’s been built up against a soft schedule, Ball State is another cupcake that should get run out of The Barn tonight. The Cardinals have only faced one opponent ranked inside the top-160 at KenPom, a neutral site game that they still lost by double digits. KenPom makes this a 13-point Gopher victory with other metrics sites as high as 19, so I’ll lay it with the team that’s undefeated straight up and ATS at home this season.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Washington/Washington Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

I’m suspicious of this Washington defense that’s somehow ranked fairly well by adjusted defensive efficiency. Some poor shooting teams, especially from beyond the arc, have probably inflated those numbers a bit, so tonight will be a true test for the Huskies. Eastern Washington is going to fire away from deep as they’re one of the most three-point reliant teams in the country.

The Eagles are also very fast-paced, and pretty terrible at defending anything. Their defense is bottom-25 in the country for opponent effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage. So Washington’s highly-rated offense, which I do trust, will have a very easy time tonight. I think this is an up-tempo game with lots of easy buckets and made three’s, so that’s a great recipe to get over this high total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1835-1640 ATS (+83.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.