Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/21

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 35.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I might very well be buying at the top of the market on Edwards here, but this number is still lower than I expected so I have to dive in. It’s because of his play in all phases of the game recently that I like Ant to clear this prop, as the uptick in rebounds and assists creates multiple paths to getting over the combined number.

The past 3 games have seen Edwards rack up 31 rebounds and 27 assists as he continues to flirt with triple-doubles. And his scoring has the stable floor you’re looking for to get to this total, averaging 23.4 PPG this month. As long as Edwards continues to elevate his all-around game, this kind of prop is how I’m looking to back him, it’s just that simple.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/OKC Thunder Over 235 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

These are two of the more consistent teams to the over in the league, and I see another one tonight. The Thunder have been blowing totals out of the water this season, as they own the highest plus/minus to the total of any team. They’re also excellent at cashing over tickets in home games at 10-5 on the season, with the league’s second-highest plus/minus in those games. And Portland has been crushing overs themselves since Damian Lillard returned, going 6-2 to the over in those 8 games.

I caught a good amount of Monday’s meeting between these teams, a 244-point affair that would drive defensive coaches crazy. That was particularly the case for Portland, who might be 12th in points allowed this season but are 24th in defensive efficiency and trending down. But they can still shoot the lights out, particularly from deep as the league’s best 3-point shooting team. That should continue to be key in piling up points tonight, so follow the smart money and grab the over on this one.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-110)

If I’m expecting an over environment in this game, then I have to expect another big night from OKC’s unstoppable star. SGA has been tearing it up all season, clearing this total in 18 of 28 games and averaging more than this many points. In December, he’s only shot below 45% twice, and in one of those games, he still dropped 35.

Portland is mediocre-at-best for defending inside the arc where SGA does most of his damage, and they’re likely to be without Jusuf Nurkic again for rim protection. That has me expecting another huge night from this budding superstar.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Damian Lillard Over 4.5 Made Three’s (+105)

If I can get a plus-juice return on a Lillard 3-point prop, especially in an expected over environment, I’m taking it. It’s definitely been Dame Time since he returned from injury, as he’s gone over this number in 6 of 8 games. And he’s been firing away with no fear, averaging 12.7 attempts per game. That kind of volume should be the key to getting over again tonight, with OKC 21st in opponent 3-point percentage, and 27th in makes allowed.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UT Arlington +4.5 @ California (-110): 6:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network

With Louisville notching a couple of wins, the mantle of worst power-conference team in the country appears to be falling to California. It’s been an embarrassing season in Berkley, with this team showing next to no effort in any game so far, and already losing 4 times to teams outside the top 200 in KenPom rankings. I question whether the Golden Bears should be favored at all here, but I’ll definitely take more than a possession’s worth of points with Arlington.

This Mavericks squad has been scrappy all season, culminating in a huge road upset of San Francisco on Monday night. They’re an extremely tough defensive team and are excellent at defending the pick-and-roll which Cal is overly reliant on. Arlington should also find success on the glass, as they’re excellent at getting offensive boards and Cal is 219th in defensive rebounding. That speaks to the effort narrative that I think will give UTA a big advantage tonight, and they should be live to win this game outright.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kent St. -4 vs New Mexico St (-110): 6:30 PM CT No TV

I think this situation is being a little misunderstood by the public, as it’s a neutral site game where New Mexico State is theoretically the home team. That’s creating a discount on one of my favorite under-the-radar teams so far this season, as Kent State has done nothing but impress all fall.

When your 3 losses on the year are true road games at Charleston, Houston, and Gonzaga, by a combined 14 points no less, that speaks incredible volumes. Led by one of the best guards in the country in Sincere Carry, this Golden Flashes squad can hang with anyone. But it’s their defense, rated 12th nationally, that has carried them and should again tonight.

New Mexico State has had all kinds of distractions this season off the court, but on it they’re just not at the level of the past couple of seasons. Poor outside shooting has doomed them, and they won’t find much inside tonight against the country’s fourth-best 2-point percentage defense. This is a chance for Kent State to notch a more signature win, and with most models having this as a double-digit margin, I’ll lay the short number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Orleans @ Purdue -33.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

If Purdue doesn’t win this game by 40-plus points, they should immediately be stripped of their top ranking. The Boilermakers haven’t had an opportunity all season to truly put it on a bad team, but they finally get a couple of chances before conference play starts. It doesn’t get much more forgiving than the New Orleans defense, ranked 357th in points allowed, and dead last in points allowed on the road. The Privateers are also 359th in 2-point percentage defense, which is perfect for a Purdue team that thrives inside the arc.

New Orleans also plays at a frenetic pace, 14th-fastest in the country, and turns it over like crazy. More possessions and easy run-outs are going to maximize scoring opportunities for the Boilers here, which are key ingredients of any blowout. The Privateers lost by 39 and 41 in their other road games this month, and those were against moderate competition, not the country’s top team. Purdue should maximize this chance to show out for the home crowd on national TV, and hand out one of the bigger beatings we’ve seen this season.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 987-831 ATS (+86.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.