Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles -0.5: 6:00 PM CT on FOX
It seems obvious to me that the Eagles are aiming to take out some frustrations in this game. Their players have made it publicly clear that they’re unhappy with their schedule being shaken up because of Washington’s COVID issues. Anger towards a division rival is a recipe for a beat down, and while I think Philly is capable of that, I’d rather tease this to a straight-up win.
The Football Team is not only heavily impacted by COVID absences, but injury problems as well. The Eagles are rested off their bye and should have Jalen Hurts back at quarterback, and Miles Sanders returning at running back. They should be able to exploit a Washington team that has struggled with mobile quarterbacks, and cruise to a win against a depleted opponent.
Seattle Seahawks/LA Rams Over 40: 6:00 PM CT on FOX
The last meeting between these teams had a closing total of 53.5, so tonight’s number of 46 is a big adjustment. Recall that Russell Wilson suffered his finger injury in that game, significantly limiting the scoring even though it got over this teased number. Wilson certainly looks healthier now, with the Seahawks scoring 63 total points in their past 2 games, and tonight will face a Rams defense hampered by COVID absences.
The Rams offense is near full strength, though. This unit still leads the NFL in yards per play and has put up 28-plus points in 6 of their last 8 games. If you remove the 3 games started by Geno Smith this season, these teams combined are 20-3 over this teased number. Getting nearly a two-touchdown discount from the first meeting’s total is significant value and should be easy to clear.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Chicago St./Iowa St. Over 125.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game has a massive spread to go along with a low total, making it a spot where I like to look to the over. An Iowa State blowout win against this cupcake opponent should lead to over tickets cashing easily.
Even though Chicago State is truly awful, I don’t want to lay 28 points with the Cyclones, as they’ve only won by that much once this season. However, I’ll definitely trust them to score at will against this Cougars team that’s allowing 75.8 PPG on the road this year without having faced a power-conference opponent. Those road games are 5-1 over this number, and these teams have combined for a 16-6 record over tonight’s total.
There is some recency bias holding this number down after ISU only scored 47 points against Jackson State last week. But I trust the Cyclones to put up big numbers offensively here against one of the worst teams in the country.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Nicholls St. +6.5 @ Oregon St. (-110): 10:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network
Showing just how improbable last season’s tournament run was, this year’s Oregon State squad is squarely in the running for worst power-conference team in the country. I see them having their hands full against a Nicholls team that’s battle-tested so far this year.
It’s gotten uglier and uglier as the season progresses for the Beavers, who have now lost 10 in a row including 3 straight against non-power teams on their home floor. They’re 1-10 ATS this season and 0-4 ATS as a home favorite with a -9.5 plus/minus to the number (that’s 23rd-worst in the country). Oregon State is really struggling defensively, owning the 323rd-rated defense in the country, and should have trouble with a Nicholls offense that’s 38th in shooting percentage.
The Colonels have faced some tough competition this year, getting a road win at Northern Iowa and taking Wisconsin to the brink just last week. This is a confident team, and I see them being extremely competitive – if not getting the outright win – against a Beavers squad that can’t get anything right.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 497-382 ATS (+86.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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