Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
Indiana is in desperate need of a bounce back after dropping four straight. This should be a great opportunity in a revenge spot against a Charlotte team that is truly struggling right now. This is not the Hornets team that went in and beat Indiana early last month, as they haven’t been able to find anything offensively since LaMelo Ball went out.
The Hornets are averaging just 96.5 PPG in the 11 games since Ball’s injury, and that’s simply not going to allow you to keep up with Indiana’s offense. The Pacers should shred a Charlotte defense that’s extremely forgiving inside the arc, and run away with a game they really need right now.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
I don’t know why Houston’s home record isn’t getting more attention league wide. It’s amazing at this point, as the Rockets haven’t lost a home game since the home opener two days before Halloween, and are now 10-1-1 ATS on the season. I’m just not going to fight that trend, especially at a short number against a sub-.500 opponent.
Atlanta’s offense will be a tough test here, but this home record for Houston is built on defense as they’re top-2 in the league for just about every defensive metric at home. I think that’s enough against a Hawks team that’s just 5-9 ATS on the road, so I’ll back Houston to keep the streak going tonight.
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Sacramento Kings Over 237.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV
This is a tough situation for Boston, coming off an overtime game last night and now having to play the fast-paced Kings. The Kings have been their typical selves at home this season, going 10-3 to the over as their offense is once again much more efficient in home games. Great defense or not, the Celtics will have trouble with the Sacramento style, especially if rim protector Kristaps Porzingis is unavailable again.
It should also be raining three’s in this game, as the Celtics and Kings are second and third, respectively, in three-point attempts. If Boston’s defense has a weakness it’s beyond the arc, and Sacramento is just 24th in opponent three-point percentage, so look for plenty of makes from deep to help push this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Baylor/Duke Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
The offenses are just too good in this game, I can’t look anywhere but the over despite it being such a big number. Baylor is 4th and Duke 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season, and while both have solid defenses, I don’t think those will be the story. Duke’s defense especially is in for a rude awakening here if Baylor bounces back from an ugly shooting performance over the weekend.
The Blue Devils are much better defensively inside, but the Bears can light it up from the perimeter on anyone and should attack from there. Baylor is also weak defensively on the outside, and the likely return of Tyrese Proctor for Duke gives them an excellent scoring option to take advantage. These neutral court games at this time of year often get wild, and there’s plenty of potential for late foul-game points, so I’ll take the over here.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) UMBC/Iowa First Half Over 85.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on BTN
When I looked ahead on Iowa’s schedule a while back and saw this matchup, I immediately circled it as being ripe for points. The Hawkeyes are going to love playing UMBC tonight, as the Retrievers play at the second-fastest tempo in the entire country. Iowa wants to fly up and down the court as well, especially in their own building against cupcake opponents, and that’s what UMBC is.
The Retrievers are just 327th in KenPom’s rankings, and have the 351st adjusted defensive efficiency mark, perfect for Iowa to take advantage of in their last game before a Christmas break. UMBC has already tangled with two power-conference opponents, and those games saw 88 and 81 points at halftime despite the opponents being just 166th and 196th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Iowa is still one of the best offenses in the country, and should turn this game into a track meet right out of the gates.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1832-1638 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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