Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz/Detroit Pistons Over 229.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
The Utah Jazz have looked pretty terrible offensively the past two nights, not even cracking the century mark. But those games were against two of the best defensive teams in the league, so mean reversion has to be coming here for the league’s 4th-rated offense. They’ll get a massive boost by facing the Detroit Pistons, the league’s 2nd-worst defensive team.
Defense has become optional in Detroit, with the Pistons surrendering 120.5 points on average across their past 10 games, and going 7-3 over this total in that stretch. But the defense hasn’t exactly been sharp for Utah either, with the Jazz just 25th in defensive rating and giving up 120.4 points in their past 5 road games. These teams also already met this season, combining for 241 points, and I see a similar result for this rematch.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Duke/Wake Forest Under 141.5 (-110): 5:30 PM CT on ACC Network
When I look for an under in college basketball, I’m looking for a slow-paced team that is going to dictate style for the game. That’s what I believe is in store here, as Duke figures to decide how this game flows, and that should be at a relative crawl. The Blue Devils are 323rd in pace this season, as new coach Jon Scheyer is not letting his blue-chip players just run and gun. But this team also lacks outside shooting, concentrating on getting buckets in the paint.
That strategy has worked well against most teams, but not against those with size. Wake Forest has several quality post players that should frustrate the Blue Devils inside, neutralizing the easy scoring they’re accustomed to. The Demon Deacons aren’t a fast-paced or elite shooting team either, and Duke’s length should slow down an offense that’s struggled against other tough defensive teams. These teams are a combined 16-8 under tonight’s total, so I see the lack of pace and shooting creating another here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Southern Indiana @ Purdue-Fort Wayne -5.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
One of my favorite teams from down the stretch of last season is back to a position where I’m comfortable buying in on them. Fort Wayne had a tough early schedule but has shown the capability this month of dominating inferior competition. That’s what they have in this mini tournament that they’re hosting, facing D1 newcomer Southern Indiana tonight after blasting another new D1 team in Texas A&M-Commerce last night.
Like a lot of teams that make the jump to D1, Southern Indiana wants to launch a lot of threes and hope for the best. It’s been working so far for them against very low competition, but this Mastodons team happens to be 7th nationally in opponent 3-point percentage. Taking away the long ball will be a frustrating shock to the system of the Screaming Eagles, and allow Fort Wayne to control the game on their home floor. Southern Indiana has only stayed within this margin in one road game so far, and I don’t see it happening here against this tough of competition.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Central Arkansas/Little Rock Under 160.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Another key to finding unders in college basketball is to look for inflated numbers like this, where style and results don’t match. It makes some sense to expect a lot of points from these two teams, who both play fast and have defenses ranked below 300th in efficiency and points allowed. But the results simply aren’t there to justify a total this high. That’s mostly because neither offense is any good, with low shooting percentages and offensive ratings for the Bears and the Trojans.
With neither team able to score effectively, pace becomes far less relevant, and reaching this total becomes very difficult with the droughts these squads are prone to. That’s why in their 18 combined D1 games, these teams are 15-3 under this total, including a game against each other that saw 153 total points. That was a high-possession game with below-average shooting and stayed under the posted total of 156 points. The inflated total here makes no sense, as I expect a similar style and result to unfold tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Queens University +13.5 @ Nebraska (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Big10+
This is a bad spot for Nebraska to be catching a red-hot upstart team like Queens. This is the final non-conference game before the Huskers host Iowa to start Big 10 play next week. That makes it easy to overlook the Royals here, who at 7-1 ATS are having one of the best starts to D1 play I can remember. This is an excellent scoring and rebounding team, who has done it against far better competition than you would expect.
As for the Huskers, their entire positive valuation this season is based on beating a Creighton team in full meltdown mode, plus keeping it close against Purdue in a massive home-hype spot. To their credit, Nebraska has beaten up on the bad teams they’ve faced, but Queens just isn’t on that same level. They’re up to 188th in KenPom rankings, nearly unheard of for a D1 newcomer, and should relish this opportunity against a power-conference school. I’m suspicious of this Nebraska team in general and the situational spot in particular, so I’ll take the points with a feisty underdog here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Montana/Gonzaga Over 148 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network
Anyone who watched Gonzaga’s game against Alabama this past weekend saw the Bulldogs start to look like their typical selves. After a relatively slow start against tough competition this season, Gonzaga's offense had nowhere to go but up, and it appears to be on the rise. That should be the biggest contributor in getting over this total, with the Bulldogs set to continue that offensive showcase for their home crowd.
They should dictate the style here against a slower-paced Montana squad, but one that can still score relatively well on a per-possession basis. The Grizzlies have also started to figure out the offense this month, topping 80 points in 3 straight games. They should also add easy points for this total at the charity stripe, as they’re 8th in free-throw percentage and Gonzaga has been having trouble with fouls this season. But this Gonzaga offense that’s heating up should do the bulk of the scoring against the country’s 286th-rated defense, getting over this relatively low total for a Zags non-conference game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 982-830 ATS (+84.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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