Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/19

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Milwaukee Bucks 1st Half Over 128 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

Despite the seemingly massive number here, it’s really not that high of a bar when this Bucks team is involved. Ever since their exit from the in-season tournament, the Bucks have been pouring it on offensively, particularly early in games. Their past 4 games since the tournament have averaged 135.0 points before halftime, going over this number each time while facing some pretty slow-paced and offensively challenged opponents.

The Milwaukee defense that’s allowing the fourth-most first half points per game is also a big factor here. While the Spurs will be without Victor Wembanyama tonight, I still believe they can score easily on a Milwaukee team that has not fixed its perimeter defense issues, just covered them up with massive scoring outbursts. Both teams are very fast-paced with poor defenses, and I think we see a ton of early points before this game becomes completely non-competitive later on.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks 1st Half Team Total Over 67.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Another thing that’s been consistent with the Bucks since the tournament is their contribution to the first half total. They’ve averaged 74.0 first half points in those four games, once again going over this number each time. They shouldn’t hesitate to run it up on another outmatched opponent with a poor defense tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Golden State Warriors Under 233 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

This is a revenge spot that I think Boston has been looking forward to, and they have a big advantage over a down Warriors squad. That should allow the Celtics to dictate the style of this game, and that should mean their excellent defense will be in control. Boston is a top-5 defensive team in every metric, and there’s not much drop-off at all when they’re on the road.

Golden State’s defense isn’t what it used to be, especially missing Draymond Green, but they’ve always been better defensively at home including this season. Both teams are also missing key players that should impact their offenses, so I’m seeing a lower-scoring game between two teams that have not been the over machines of recent years.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Klay Thompson Over 26.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

There’s no sugarcoating that Thompson has not been having a good season to this point. But that has caused this number to dip far too low, especially with him picking up his scoring since Draymond was suspended. That won’t be easy to continue against such a good Boston defense, but contributions in other areas should get him over this number regardless.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida/Michigan Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’ve watched both these teams a couple times now this season, and the way both of them play should combine for a lot of points tonight. The biggest factor is Florida’s pace, which has been ratcheted way up under Todd Golden and has them 16th in adjusted tempo. They’re also a really good offensive team with a couple of dynamic scorers. Michigan is not a fast-paced team, but the Wolverines are elite offensively, ranked 20th in adjusted efficiency and 13th in effective field goal rate.

Speeding up a team like Michigan is going to create a lot of points, part of the reason they’re 9-2 to the over this year. I’m also seeing a lot of scoring from second-chance opportunities with Florida being one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and Michigan being a subpar rebounding squad. That should all add up to plenty of scoring and justify this high total that KenPom projects at 161 points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Presbyterian/Furman Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This should be a track meet dictated by a Furman team that wants to fly up and down the floor. They’ve been doing it effectively this season, as the Paladins are 18th in adjusted tempo which has created a 7-2 over record for them. This is an excellent shooting team that is incredibly good at getting to the rim for easy buckets, and that shouldn’t change against a Presbyterian squad that’s just 278th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

But the Blue Hose are also a very good shooting team, and Furman plays next to no defense, ranked 337th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Every metrics site I’ve seen projects an over on this number including KenPom with 160 points, so look for a fast-paced game with little defense that clears this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1828-1636 ATS (+80.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.