Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 58 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Be sure to monitor the injury situation for Dallas entering this game. Several players are dealing with an illness, and Luka Doncic has a quadriceps injury that held him out of Saturday’s contest. But with Doncic available, I see this game getting out to an electric start. The Wolves are obviously red hot after going nuclear in yesterday’s record-setting offensive outburst, so at least some of that should carry over into the early stages tonight.
But the biggest key here is how these teams typically play the opening quarter of their games. With Minnesota 4th and Dallas 7th in first-quarter scoring, the offenses should do their part. And defense has definitely been optional for both teams early in games for this situational spot of Dallas visiting Target Center. The Wolves allow the most first-quarter points in home games, while the Mavs surrender the 6th-most in road games. I expected to see this isolated total above 60 for those reasons, and I’m jumping on what I consider a discounted number if the injury report isn't too ugly.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Los Angeles Rams Team Total Under 15.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
This should have been a much more compelling and consequential matchup, but we’re left with a fairly ugly Monday Night Football game because the Rams have fallen apart this season. Their miracle comeback win last week aside, this offense is not one I’m looking to back in most any situation, but particularly tonight. The Baker Mayfield-led attack will have to travel to the frozen tundra and face a Packers defense that’s rested and prepared off their bye week.
The matchup advantages are scarce for Los Angeles here, even against a Green Bay rush defense that ranks last in DVOA metrics. But the Rams are terrible at running the ball despite their commitment to it, ranking 26th in rush DVOA and 32nd in the rush offense Expected Points Added metric. That should result in the Rams having little success on the ground, stalled drives, and then trying to force things through the air against a good Packer secondary. With both teams very slow-paced by nature, we should see a lower-scoring game in general and from LA in particular.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-110)
The late bye week should help Rodgers immensely for this game. It’s given him time to get healthier after some injury trouble, and it’s given him time to work with his young receiving corps. That unit is also the healthiest it’s been this season, with the top three targets all back in the fold tonight. This is a much more vulnerable Rams secondary than perception would suggest, ranking 23rd in pass defense DVOA. And with no Aaron Donald tonight, Rodgers will have more time to slice that defense up and get over this number for the 10th time on the season.
Extra Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each): Christian Watson Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110) and Anytime TD (+140)
The switch has been flipped for Watson, who is the most dynamic playmaker the Packers have. This yardage total has been his floor the past 4 games, in which he has racked up 313 receiving yards and 8 total touchdowns. With the success I’m expecting from Rodgers set to lift Watson, I like both these props to hit for the rookie receiver.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 981-827 ATS (+85.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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