Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/17

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) NY Giants +5.5 @ New Orleans Saints (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I realize the Tommy Cutlets story is everywhere and that makes the Giants a pretty popular play here, which can be scary. But I can’t get past the fact that this is the same number the Saints were laying at home to Carolina last week. The Panthers are unquestionably the worst team in the league, power-rated far below the Giants, so this line doesn’t make a lot of sense from that standpoint.

It’s also worth noting that the Saints were extremely lucky to win and cover last week, losing the time of possession, yardage, and first downs battles to the Panthers. I don’t expect the Giants to self-destruct the way Carolina did, plus they can run the ball even better which is New Orleans’ weakness defensively. The Saints are just 6-15 ATS in home games the past couple seasons, and Derek Carr is the worst quarterback ATS as a favorite the past 20 years, so give me the fun DeVito story and all these points.

NFL (1 Unit) Washington Commanders/LA Rams Over 50.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on CBS

This is the highest total on the board, and with good reason. A healthy Matthew Stafford and healthy weapons makes for a dangerous offense, and the Rams are clicking since they got back to full health with 34.7 PPG the past 3 weeks. Now they get to face a Commanders defense that’s 31st or 32nd in just about every major defensive metric. I’m not a believer that a bye week is what was needed to fix Washington’s defense, it’s just plain bad right now and a motivated Rams team will shred it. But with Sam Howell and his good weapons likely playing from behind all game, we’ll see plenty of scoring from both teams today.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): LA Rams 1st Half Team Total Over 14.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars)

I can’t pass up the plus-juice return here, not with how these teams tend to perform early in games. The Rams will be looking to build their lead before half, and these past 3 games of healthy offensive weapons have seen them average 18.0 first half points. Washington meanwhile is dead last in first half points allowed at 16.1 per game, so I’ll take a shot that LA is scoring at will right out of the gates.

NFL (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals 1st Half Over 24 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on CBS

I think the 49ers have a great chance of smashing the Cardinals this week like they’ve done to them and other NFC West opponents for a long time now. But San Fran has a massive game on deck next week against Baltimore, and that could cause them to slow things down late in this one. So I want to isolate the first half for a lot of points, which should come primarily from the 49ers but also from Arizona, and capitalize on this plus-juice price.

The Cardinals have been pretty capable offensively since Kyler Murray returned, going over this total every week except their multiple weather delay game in Pittsburgh. And these teams have made a habit of getting into early shootouts against each other, with the last 3 meetings averaging 30.7 points before halftime. Arizona will have no answer defensively for the 49ers offensive juggernaut, especially when it’s motivated to build a comfortable lead, so we should see lots of early scoring here.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

NY Giants +11.5 @ New Orleans Saints: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

For all the reasons I like the Giants at +5.5 today, I love them at this padded number. The Saints defense is aging, injured, and not what it used to be, plus the Giants are getting Darren Waller back here for a major boost to the offense. I just don’t see New Orleans being able to win by margin today with all their injuries and a struggling Derek Carr, so this is a very comfortable cushion of points.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 @ New England Patriots: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I said on my podcast that this is my top teaser leg of the week, and I’m expecting a bounce back from Mahomes and company after consecutive losses. A fired-up Patrick Mahomes is a scary proposition no matter how bad his receivers are, and getting him under a field goal is the Goldilocks zone of betting on the Chiefs. While Bailey Zappe shocked a lot of people in Pittsburgh last week, I don’t see him having much success against perhaps the league’s most underrated defense. Despite all their issues, the Chiefs will find a way to win this game by the teased number, plain and simple.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 @ Arizona Cardinals: 3:05 PM CT on CBS

Some of the ATS trends for both of these teams are just stunning. The 49ers are on an 11-0 straight up and 10-1 ATS run against divisional opponents, and have covered big numbers in the past 3 meetings with Arizona. It’s all about the health of their elite skill players, as San Fran is also 15-5 ATS when both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey start. Arizona is on a 1-12 ATS run in NFC West games, and haven’t won or covered in a home divisional game since October of 2021. I’m not even asking the 49ers to cover, just win by a touchdown, so this is a great spot in my opinion.

Washington Commanders @ LA Rams -0.5: 3:05 PM CT on CBS

The Commanders were not even remotely competitive in the three games heading into the bye week, and I don’t believe a week off changes any of that for a team in their situation. The Rams are in desperation mode here with a narrow path to the playoffs, and as I mentioned above should shred the awful Washington defense. But if it does turn into a shootout as I’m expecting, I’d rather not lay a touchdown with LA where the back door could be open. That’s probably an inflated number anyway off LA’s 4-0 ATS run, so I’ll just ask them to get the win they desperately need today.

NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – David Njoku Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kareem Hunt Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – DJ Moore Anytime TD (+190)

0.5 Unit – Breece Hall Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tyler Conklin Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Derrick Henry 100-plus Rushing Yards (+300)

0.25 Unit – Derrick Henry 2-plus Touchdowns (+375)

0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Raachad White Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Romeo Doubs Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)

0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Ezekiel Elliott Over 84.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 75.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Brock Purdy Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – James Conner Over 64.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyler Murray Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Sam Howell Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 66.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 119.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – LA Rams Defense Anytime TD (+455)

0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 24.5 Completions (-110)

0.75 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dawson Knox Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tony Pollard Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rico Dowdle Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Dallas Cowboys Defense Anytime TD (+425)

1 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 211.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Evan Engram Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Zay Flowers Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 3.5 Receptions (+105)

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Florida A&M @ Iowa State -33 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The opening number of 23.5 on this game felt like as close to a mistake as you’re ever going to see from oddsmakers. Let’s start with the simple fact that KenPom makes this a 28-point Iowa State runaway while other sites expect an even bigger blowout, which explains all the line movement to here. But Florida A&M just spent yesterday getting run up and down the floor by an angry Iowa team, and now have to play on no rest against a Cyclones squad that has shown zero mercy to inferior opponents.

Iowa State has played a soft schedule, but have had no problem running it up on that list of cupcakes. They’ve already faced 5 teams ranked 265th or worse by KenPom, going 5-0 ATS. All of those games had higher spreads than this one, and the Clones have won by 46.6 points on average and posted a plus-18.0 average ATS margin. Books can’t make numbers high enough for cupcakes visiting Hilton Coliseum, and we should see an absolute blowout in this situation.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1813-1612 ATS (+84.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.