Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120)
Indianapolis Colts/Minnesota Vikings Over 40.5: 12:00 PM CT on NFL Network
The standard total in this game seems a bit high for a Colts game given their season of offensive ineptitude, but 3 of their past 4 have gone over this teased number. The offense has appeared to figure a few things out recently, while the once-strong defense is making some late-season business decisions. Indianapolis should find more success offensively against this Vikings defense that has been getting shredded by everyone.
But that porous Minnesota defense is a good complement to their excellent offense when looking to bet overs in their games. That’s gotten them to a 9-4 mark over this teased total on the season, which improves to 6-1 over it in home games. Over has been the play in Vikings home games for a few seasons now, so I’ll trust the trends on this teased number.
Baltimore Ravens +10 @ Cleveland Browns: 3:30 PM CT on NFL Network
I think the writing is on the wall for Cleveland that they aren’t making the postseason, so I question their motivation in this game in general. Getting double digits then, with a team like Baltimore, is a strong play in a divisional matchup that projects to be tightly contested. The Ravens have owned this matchup in recent years, going 10-4 ATS since 2015 including 6-1-1 ATS in the past 8 trips to Cleveland.
Kevin Stefanski is not who you want to back in spots like this either, as he tends to win as a favorite but covers the number just 34.6% of the time. Stefanski has also been terrible in the division, with a 4-12 ATS mark against AFC North opponents. I’m confident enough in Tyler Huntley to step in for Lamar Jackson here, and getting double digits is a lot of cushion for a game Baltimore should probably win.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills PK: 7:15 PM CT on NFL Network
I think Mike McDaniel is going to regret his choice of t-shirt from practice this week. The Dolphins are not a team that ever wishes it was colder, with struggles up north in December dating back forever. After the Bills fell victim to tough weather conditions in Miami for their Week 3 meeting, Western New York is ready to return the favor.
The cold, snow, and wind should really impact Tua Tagovailoa in this game, with the Miami quarterback having never played in conditions that are expected for tonight. He has played in 3 games with a temperature below 50 degrees, and they’re the 3 games where he posted the lowest QBR of his career, with the Dolphins averaging only 14 PPG. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo with the ability to all but wrap up the division, so asking them to just get the win is an easy decision.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Houston Rockets Over 228 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet SW
It’s been tough to trust the Houston offense this season, as their success comes in random spurts. But putting them up against this increasingly suspect Portland defense, with the Blazers on a back-to-back, seems like a recipe for success.
Portland games have been trending heavily towards shootouts lately, with the Blazers cashing the over in 7 of their past 9 contests. A big reason is allowing 116.7 PPG in that stretch, and with tired legs tonight off a high-possession game yesterday, that defense should struggle again. But Portland has also been lighting it up offensively, particularly with Damian Lillard's return from injury, and have scored 118.7 PPG themselves in that same 9-game stretch.
That’s moved them up to 8th in offensive rating, and they should be able to torch a Houston defense that’s 26th in efficiency. The Blazers are also one of the best teams to the over after a straight-up loss, with those subsequent games going 8-3-1 over the total. After these teams combined for 236 points in their first meeting, I’ll trust them to do it again here behind a surging Portland offense.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 980-826 ATS (+86.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.