Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/16

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Denver Broncos Team Total Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on NFL Network

This is a full fade of the Detroit defense, as that unit has fallen off a cliff the past couple of months. The Lions are dead last in overall defensive DVOA since Week 7, having allowed their opponents to go over this total in 6 of the past 7 games while averaging 28.7 points per game. The Broncos have started expanding what they’re comfortable with offensively as Russell Wilson gets more trustworthy, and it has led to more consistent scoring outputs. If Jerry Jeudy starts hanging on to the ball and Dan Campbell gifts them good field position, Denver should score plenty today against a struggling defense.

NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – TJ Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions (+106)

0.75 Unit – TJ Hockenson Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Nick Mullens Over 22.5 Completions (-110)

0.75 Unit – Chase Brown Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tee Higgins Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tanner Hudson Over 2.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+180)

0.5 Unit – Mitch Trubisky Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Alec Pierce Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jaylen Warren Over 67.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Javonte Williams Over 77.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

NBA (1.25 Unit) Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Let’s start with the fact that it’s the Pacers, so this game will see a ton of possessions thanks to their pace of play. Those extra possessions mean extra rebound opportunities, which should mean a higher number here for Gobert but instead it’s just juiced higher. I’ll take it because I think he cleans up tonight against a very poor rebounding team. Indiana is just 26th in overall rebounding rate and 29th in defensive rebounding, so Rudy should improve on his pace of 12.2 boards per game this year and 14.4 the past 7 games.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) New Mexico State -3.5 vs Fresno State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:45 PM CT on ESPN

Last night I bet against the New Mexico State basketball team, which is currently occupying the depths of despair that the football program used to be in. But now the Aggies football team is at the heights previously enjoyed by the basketball program, and I think they keep building on a lot of momentum today. This is enormous for them, as a program that used to lose double-digit games annually can earn their 11th win of the season.

They should be able to do it behind dynamic quarterback Diego Pavia, who gives them a chance in just about every game as Auburn found out last month. Fresno State meanwhile will not have their head coach Jeff Tedford for this game due to health issues. That puts the Bulldogs in a tough spot, and it gets tougher considering this is more or less a home game for NMSU in Albuquerque. A big crowd edge and coaching advantage should carry the Aggies to second consecutive bowl win.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Bonaventure vs FAU -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This is a neutral court game, and that has me looking for comparable situations with St Bonaventure whose weak schedule has made them a bit of an unknown. The Bonnies have only faced one good offense on the season, in a neutral court game no less, a matchup with Auburn who is 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Tigers rolled by 17 and covered the 9.5 point spread in that one. So FAU laying the same number of points here when they’re 5th in adjusted offense has me scratching my head. The Owls have run out every overmatched opponent this season except for one shocking upset. I’m seeing another blowout here as their offense overwhelms a Bonnies squad that won’t be able to keep pace.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Francisco/Utah State Over 138.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on MW Network

San Francisco has a very good defense, ranked 24th in adjusted efficiency by KenPom, but they’re facing the toughest test of the season here today. The Dons have built those defensive numbers against a somewhat uninspiring schedule without any really high-powered offenses on it. That changes today as Utah State is 8th nationally in offensive efficiency in home games, and the Dons defense is not the same on the road.

Both squads are excellent inside the arc, especially the Aggies who are 11th in two-point percentage, so plenty of easy points will pile up. San Francisco has also shown the willingness to go up and down the floor if that’s what the opponent dictates, so look for this game to find its way over the fairly low number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida A&M @ Iowa -12 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:30 PM CT on BTN

Fran McCaffrey can be pretty amusing with his frustrations, outbursts, and inevitable ejections. One of those ejections came in their last game on Sunday and it had been building for a while, so I expect him and the Hawkeyes to show no mercy today. We’re running low on opportunities to capitalize on Iowa brutalizing cupcake opponents at Carver-Hawkeye, so I’m not passing this one up.

Florida A&M has gone on the road to a power school three times this year, trailing at halftime by double digits each game with an average deficit of 18.3 points. Iowa meanwhile has led at halftime of their four home games against cupcakes by an average 12.5 point margin. The Rattlers are just 348th in adjusted offensive efficiency, nowhere near what’s needed to keep up with a Hawkeyes team that will be channeling their coach’s anger, so look for Iowa to get up big early on.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kentucky/North Carolina Over 164.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on CBS

This should be a really fun game, and the neutral court environment won’t give either team an undue advantage. I think that helps offenses operate in peak form, and these are two amazing offensive teams. North Carolina comes in at 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency, with Kentucky right behind them at 7th according to KenPom. Both are very up-tempo, with the Wildcats actually playing faster than the Tar Heels despite Carolina’s reputation for high pace under Hubert Davis.

A big key here will be Kentucky’s elite three-point shooting racking up points against a UNC team that struggles to guard the perimeter. But I don’t think an undersized Wildcats front court will be able to stop Armando Bacot from getting easy buckets inside, so both teams should score with ease in a game KenPom projects at almost 170 points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Portland vs Grand Canyon -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN+

I used to love this Portland team as their offense the past couple years was outstanding. But that unit has taken a big hit this season with graduations and transfers, leaving them at just 161st in adjusted efficiency, and ranked 241st in three-point shooting which used to be their calling card. It’s going to be tough for them to keep up with Grand Canyon here without that offensive firepower, especially with the Antelopes playing such great basketball.

GCU is fresh off one of the biggest wins in program history, taking down mid-major powerhouse Liberty on the road, and now returns to Phoenix where they’ve been dominant. While this is technically a neutral court game, the Footprint Center is in GCU’s backyard and they’ll have a massive crowd advantage. They also have big offensive and defensive advantages, plus experience and size edges, so look for the Lopes to take this one by closer to the KenPom number of 13 points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1799-1603 ATS (+81.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.