Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/16

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Paolo Banchero Over 19.5 Points (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

This number surprised me because it’s back around where Banchero’s point props were to start the season. Everything he’s done since has impressed me, so this looks like a discounted total in a game where there should be plenty of scoring opportunity. Boston is the league’s highest-scoring and most efficient offense, and it ramps up to a whole different level at home. All that should do is create more possessions for a volume shooter like Banchero to pad his scoring stats.

This is a number he’s gone over in 8 of the past 9 games, as the Magic rookie continues to be their primary scoring option. Banchero also cleared this total in his third game as a pro, dropping 23 against Boston in their first meeting. He’s also been cashing in quite a bit from the free throw line recently, with his free throw percentage going up as well, and the Celtics have shown a tendency to foul much more this season. Those easy points, combined with what should be a high-scoring environment, appear to be what Banchero will need to get over this total once again.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 49.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

This is another old reliable prop to go after, and it’s down around the same level that has been so easy for Doncic to clear regularly this season. While he averages 50.1 for the season on this prop, there are several factors I’m looking at which suggest he’ll clear it with ease tonight. First is that he’s at home where he scores 3.7 more points per game, giving him an added boost in reaching this total.

Secondly, with the injury to Maxi Kleber, more of the scoring and rebounding load will fall to Doncic. And lastly, this matchup with Damian Lillard and the Blazers should bring out Luka’s best tonight. Looking to outduel a fellow superstar, against a team that’s 21st in defensive rating, should help pad every stat category for Doncic. He already went for 42 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists against Portland earlier this season, so in a bounce-back spot off Wednesday’s loss, I’m expecting big things from Luka here.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Creighton +3.5 @ Marquette (-110): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

I’m getting a little contrarian with this one, especially since everything in the basketball world seems to be on its head right now. But I like what I’m getting here with Creighton, who is undervalued after five straight losses. It’s the losing streak for a preseason darling that gets the headlines, but how they’ve lost those games is going unnoticed.

When those losses come by a combined 22 points, it really boils down to this talented Bluejays team not having bounces go their way. To be fair, Marquette is also a talented team, with a similar style to Creighton that should create a close contest tonight. Both squads can shoot the lights out and like to fire away from deep, so I don’t see too much separating them. They’re used to tight games too, with last year’s meetings creating a double overtime game and another one-point affair, both Creighton victories.

Creighton should also get center Ryan Kalkbrenner back tonight, who is extremely important on both ends of the court. That should give them a slight edge that will either help get them back on track or suffer another close loss, but either way I’ll take a full possession of points here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 979-824 ATS (+86.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.