Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/15

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Detroit Pistons/Philadelphia 76ers 1st Half Over 115 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

Philadelphia has really been flexing their offensive muscle lately, and have been unafraid to run it up on bad teams. That’s what they’ll see tonight with the most pathetic squad in the NBA visiting, and just two days after the Pistons were run out of their own building by the Sixers. That game saw 126 points at halftime, right on trend with Philadelphia’s past 8 games that have averaged 125.4 first half points and gone 8-0 over this total. Detroit’s no-effort defense should get shredded again early here by the league’s second-rated offense, as the 76ers look to build an early lead and coast late on the front end of a back-to-back.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers -8 @ Washington Wizards (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

This is a situational spot play for me, as I have to imagine the Pacers want to flush the memory of getting 64 hung on them by Giannis on Wednesday night. What better way to bounce back than to put your unstoppable offense up against the league’s worst defense? Especially considering the Wizards want to play at Indiana’s breakneck speed, which only serves to benefit the Pacers who are actually efficient offensively. Washington has been completely noncompetitive the past few games and were already run out by 23 in the first meeting with Indiana, so this has the look of another blowout.

NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks @ Phoenix Suns -5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Ok, so the first game with Phoenix’s Big 3 all together didn’t go as planned. But they’ll get on the same page eventually, and a price like this to see it happen tonight is pretty cheap compared to what we’ll see if they start erupting on their opponents. And giving them a national TV spot might be the perfect opportunity to do just that, especially against a struggling Knicks team.

The Knicks are just 2-5-1 ATS as a road underdog, failing to cover the number by an average 3.9 point margin. They also historically struggle out west, as they showed with an ugly loss in Utah on Wednesday night. Not having Mitchell Robinson is really hampering this team, so I think the Big 3 plus Jusuf Nurkic have an easy time scoring and pulling away in this one.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Kevin Durant Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This is a good stat combo for KD because he can erupt in either category. Without Mitchell Robinson inside, Durant can score easily at the rim and help with the rebounding work. Splitting up the scoring between the Big 3 will change things, but he’s still an elite scorer who has gone over this number in 13 of the past 16 games and is averaging 37.3 on the season.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) New Mexico -14.5 @ New Mexico State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I just don’t think home court for New Mexico State matters as much as this line seems to be indicating. While it’s a rivalry game that has seen craziness happen in the past, this year’s NMSU team is flat-out a disaster. All the off-court distractions of the past couple seasons have torn this program down, while New Mexico is really on the rise.

The discrepancy couldn’t have been any clearer in the first meeting this season when the Lobos ran out the Aggies by 44 points. The spread was 17.5 in that game, so that result and a flip of venue doesn’t equal the Aggies being 3 points better here. NMSU can’t guard anything inside, ranking 332nd in opponent two-point percentage, so the Lobos and their mid-range-heavy offense should feast again. These teams are 240 spots apart in KenPom for a reason, and this should be another blowout.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Portland State/San Diego 1st Half Under 72 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m surprised by how high the total is in this game overall. While I could see these teams getting into a higher-scoring affair down the stretch of the game, I just don’t see it early on. Portland State is 231st in first half scoring while San Diego is 282nd, although the past few games for the Toreros have seen a lot more points.

Portland State is a much slower-paced and defensive-oriented team than what San Diego has seen lately, so it will be a different style of game than what they’re used to. These teams are a combined 12-4 under this total in their games against D1 opponents, and I’m seeing a slower start to this one as well.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1798-1598 ATS (+84.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.