Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/14

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) LA Chargers/Las Vegas Raiders Under 34.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Last week’s Thursday Night Football game going over was incredibly surprising, but it’s an outlier that isn’t changing my opinion on Thursday and primetime games in general. It’s definitely not scaring me off the under here, with trainwrecks at quarterback and tons of key injuries to both offenses. I can’t imagine who’s desperate to watch Easton Stick versus Aidan O’Connell, but it shouldn’t be pretty.

The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen here, while the Raiders are likely to be missing Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, severely hampering the poorly quarterbacked offenses even more. These teams are a combined 20-6 to the under this season, with the Chargers currently on a 10-1 under run. I wish this total was on the other side of 35, but I still think we see the under come in tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I think the Chargers are a dead team walking, with their star quarterback out for the year, star wide receiver hurt, and head coach on the chopping block. The Raiders are probably more motivated behind Antonio Pierce fighting for the permanent head coaching job.

They’re also motivated after getting shut out last week, and teams who were held scoreless the previous week are 29-13-3 ATS the following game. Teams who allowed less than 12 points and lost their previous game are 19-4 the next week, so that gives a lot of support to the Raiders bouncing back here.

TNF Bonus Props (Odds via DraftKings)

0.1  Unit – No Touchdown Scored (+2500)

0.25 Unit – Easton Stick Anytime TD (+510)

0.25 Unit – Quentin Johnston Over 2.5 Receptions (+110)

0.5 Unit – Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)

0.25 Unit – Jakobi Meyers Anytime TD (+375)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves ML @ Dallas Mavericks (+105; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

There’s some speculation that Anthony Edwards comes back in this game as he’s had lots of time off to rest his hip. I think that’s being reflected in the line being so short to begin with, and seeing it move towards Minnesota. If Ant does play tonight, that makes the Wolves the correct side against a Dallas team that really can’t point to a quality win in weeks. The excellent Minnesota defense is a good matchup to cool off the red-hot Luka Doncic, especially without having to worry about Kyrie Irving for this game. I’ll be monitoring the status of Edwards for this game, and jumping in on the Wolves if he suits up.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This is a nightly line for Gobert, and he should be in position to get over it again tonight. He got into foul trouble on Monday night to keep him short of the number, but that shouldn’t be an issue twice in a row. Dallas is fairly undersized and short-handed down low, so this is a good matchup for Rudy to clean the glass as usual.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets @ Denver Nuggets -5.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

At some point, things can’t keep going wrong for Denver. It’s gotten weird lately, with Jokic having terrible games and getting ejected for questionable reasons. But they finally got some road wins this week in a tough back-to-back situation which shows they’re trending in the right direction.

Speaking of back-to-back, the Nets come into Denver after being the first team to face Phoenix’s Big 3 last night. No rest and traveling to elevation is not easy, and creates a situation where the Nuggets should flex their usual early advantage against a tired team. This actually feels like a cheap price given Denver’s history in this situation, so I’ll back them to build a solid early lead.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1793-1593 ATS (+83.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.