Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/14

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/LA Clippers Over 221.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

This total really comes down to whether the Timberwolves have enough defense to slow down a very healthy Clippers roster. Their play over recent weeks would suggest no, as the Wolves have allowed 115 or more points in 6 of their past 8 games. So it’s no accident that those games have gone 7-1 over tonight’s total, and I’m expecting more of the same in this one.

With both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard in the lineup, the Clippers should score at will, even though they’ve been one of the league’s lower-scoring teams. But a Minnesota defense that’s appeared disinterested lately shouldn’t offer much resistance, while their tempo that’s second-fastest in the NBA will give LA more possessions. National TV games like this have trended higher-scoring and this is a low total by Minnesota’s standards, so I see these teams getting over the number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UCLA @ Maryland -1 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

I continue to be impressed by this Maryland team, even in their recent losses, which seem to be creating an unfair valuation of them here. While the Terps were riding high until last week, single-digit losses on the road at Wisconsin and on a neutral court to Tennessee aren’t anything to be ashamed of. They should be a larger favorite here against a UCLA squad that has not passed its tough tests this season.

The Bruins have played an easy schedule – ranked 133rd by KenPom – and it’s been very easy aside from their games against Illinois and Baylor, both losses. But they’ve rolled over 5 straight weaker teams since they lost back-to-back games themselves, artificially inflating their value here. College Park is a tough place to play, especially for a team traveling across the country. The Terps have already defended home court against that tough Illinois squad who beat the Bruins, so I see them getting a big victory here to get back on track.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Western Kentucky -7.5 @ Louisville (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I said I would be fading this Louisville team until something changed, and nothing has changed. The Cardinals couldn’t even keep it close against Florida State over the weekend, one of the other teams vying for the title of most disappointing in the country. As crazy as it sounds, this actually sets up as a look-ahead spot for Louisville, as their game on Saturday against Florida A&M might be the best chance they have to get a win this season.

That pillow fight will be entertaining in its own right, but tonight looks like another loss by margin for Louisville. With an offense that’s 350th or worse in just about every category, I don’t see them putting up a fight here against a strong Western Kentucky defense. The Hilltoppers are also the second-best 3-point shooting team in the country, which should allow them to overwhelm and pull away from Louisville. It’s not easy to start a season 0-10 ATS, but that’s the only accomplishment I see out of the Cardinals tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 978-819 ATS (+88.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.