Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/13

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 @ Washington Wizards (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO

I think this is still a relatively low price to buy in on New Orleans, as we’re not far removed from their beatdown loss in the tournament semifinal. That seemed to wake them up though, as their comfortable victory over the Wolves showed. It doesn’t take much to get a comfortable victory over these Wizards, so the Pelicans can easily stomp them if they want.

The Pels score very effectively inside, and the league’s worst 2-point percentage defense should let New Orleans do whatever they want. Washington is just 2-6 ATS at home this season, owning the worst average margin and second-worst average ATS margin, so this is a great spot for the Pelicans to grab a double-digit win.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

I’m puzzled by this spread because it’s considerably lower than the number Houston was just laying on Monday night. While that was to the Spurs who are objectively worse than Memphis, it’s not that drastic a difference. I expected to see this number in the 7 or 8 point range given the Rockets covered again at home on Monday, pushing them to 9-1-1 ATS with the best average margin against the number in home games.

Houston also ran the Grizzlies out in the first meeting by 20 and covered the 5-point spread, so this is a strangely small adjustment based on that as well. The Rockets are just better than anyone gives them credit for, especially at home, so this looks like a cheap price to back them again.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers +6.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

The Bucks are just getting too much respect for a turnaround that hasn’t really materialized. Milwaukee is underperforming expectations, especially at the betting window as a 9-13-1 ATS team including 4-7-1 at home. They haven’t been covering large numbers, which this qualifies as being that it’s two full possessions, thanks to truly bad perimeter defense.

Indiana is the last team you want to see when you can’t guard the perimeter, which the Bucks have found out in their two losses to the Pacers. While this is certainly a good revenge spot for Milwaukee, I’m just not confident that they can put away a team with the firepower Indiana has. This game is likely to be played at Indiana’s preferred pace which gives them an advantage, and I think we’ll see a tight one all game long.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Chicago St @ Northwestern -24 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on BTN

I don’t think this line is fully appreciating the uptick in offense we’re starting to see from Northwestern after the defense carried them early. The Wildcats are up to 40th in adjusted offensive efficiency, rare territory for a team that’s always been built on strong defense. They have that too, and the combination should help them pull away from a Chicago State team that’s 335th in offense and 311th in defense at KenPom. The Cougars have posted a 4-7-1 ATS record this season against pretty poor competition, not facing any team inside the top 115 at KenPom, so this step up in class should result in a Northwestern blowout.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Auburn/UNC Asheville Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on SEC Network

While this is a neutral site game, it’s much more of a home game for Auburn, and I think that gives their excellent offense a boost. The Tigers are up to 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency as their collection of transfer talent comes together, and they just put 104 on Indiana over the weekend.

The Hoosiers are much better defensively than this Asheville team that is 336th in points allowed this year. The Bulldogs already had one clash with a power conference school, giving up 99 points to Michigan. That’s a very similar offense to what they’ll see tonight, and should result in plenty of points given up once again. A high level of scoring from Auburn should pull Asheville along to some degree, pushing this game over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1791-1590 ATS (+83.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.