Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/12

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Kyler Murray Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I’m having a really tough time picking a side in this game, with two teams squaring off that I have next to no trust in. I know one thing, though – the Patriots really struggle with mobile quarterbacks. In their games against Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Josh Allen, New England has surrendered 209 rushing yards combined to the opposing quarterback.

Kyler Murray should find plenty of room to run on designed zone reads tonight, and when he scrambles against the strong pressure that the Patriots generate. He has eclipsed this total in 5 of the past 6 weeks, and it’s below his per-game average on the season. With a healthy supporting cast of receivers that need to be accounted for, Murray should have enough open lanes to find his way over this total.

NFL (0.25 Unit) Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+285): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

New England’s prized tight end has only found pay dirt twice on the season, but he has the best opportunity of the year to do it again here. Henry got those touchdowns against poor defenses, which he’s been able to exploit consistently this season. Arizona qualifies as a bad defense, ranking 24th in overall defensive DVOA metrics, and 25th against the pass.

But they’re historically bad against tight ends, surrendering the most production to the position of any team since 2014. It’s not easy to believe in this milquetoast Patriots offense, but a juicy return like this is worth a shot, given Arizona’s track record.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Gonzaga Team Total Over 91.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network

This is a very high number, but there’s plenty of reason to believe Gonzaga gets over it tonight. The Zags haven’t had many of their typical early-season offensive eruptions, but the instances when they have were against cupcake opponents like this. Gonzaga hung 104 points on North Florida and 102 against Portland State, the two weakest opponents they’ve faced. Northern Illinois comes into this game ranked 258th in defensive rating, and should be an easy victim if the Zags want to run it up.

And that weak defense has come against a schedule where the Huskies have yet to face an offense better than 161st in adjusted offense by KenPom rankings. Gonzaga might be just 50th in per-possession scoring this season, but adjust that for strength of opponent and they grade out to 4th according to KenPom. The pace necessary to get there shouldn’t be a problem either, with the Huskies playing at the 38th-fastest tempo in the country. Gonzaga loves to run in games like this in front of the home crowd, so I’m expecting them to approach the century mark and clear this isolated total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 978-815 ATS (+90.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.