Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
With Baltimore’s late and narrow escape yesterday, Miami needs this game to move into a tie for the top AFC seed where they’d hold the tiebreaker. I don’t think they leave any doubt in a matchup that fits perfectly for how their elite offense wants to attack. The Titans are just plain awful on defense in the passing game, ranking dead last by DVOA against outside receivers. Miami will want to make a statement in primetime here, and further their role as a bully going 7-1 ATS against sub-.500 teams this year. The Dolphins are also 16-6 ATS at home with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, so I just don’t see how the Titans keep up here.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Titans/Dolphins First Half Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The first half will be the time when Miami is throwing and putting the pedal down offensively. While I think the full game can get over the total, I’d rather avoid a situation where the Dolphins are draining the clock in the second half. Miami’s home games this season are 5-0 over this total, and it’s very possible the Dolphins handle this number themselves.
MNF Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Tyreek Hill Over 106.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tyreek Hill 125-plus Receiving Yards (+130)
0.25 Unit – Tyreek Hill 150-plus Receiving Yards (+300)
0.5 Unit – Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+140)
0.5 Unit – Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Completions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Devon Achane Over 76.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 3.5 Receptions (+115)
0.5 Unit – Romeo Doubs Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dontayvion Wicks Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaylin Hyatt Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers -6.5 @ Detroit Pistons (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
This could go one of two ways for Indiana after losing in the title game Saturday night. It’s certainly possible they’ll have a flat spot after that disappointment and a couple nights in Vegas. But I’m betting they come out firing and take out some frustrations on a truly terrible opponent. There’s nobody worse than Detroit right now, and they’ve been really terrible offensively.
If the Pacers get back to their typical style after a tournament environment slowed them down, then the Pistons have no chance of keeping up. Indiana flipped the switch in the first meeting between these teams and ended up cruising by 23 points. They know how to run out this Detroit team who gets run out nightly, so I’ll count on some motivation on Indiana’s part to make it happen.
NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets -8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
I’m done fighting against the Rockets and their home dominance, especially when an awful team comes for a visit. Houston is a league-best 8-1-1 ATS in their own building, with a plus-14.1 average ATS margin that’s also leading the league. It’s all being built on defense, as the Rockets are second only to the Wolves for defensive efficiency in home games.
The Spurs coming in gives Houston a chance at revenge for an early season loss, and they should capitalize here. San Antonio is not equipped offensively to handle that quality defense, so their road woes should continue. The Spurs have the league’s second-worst average margin and third-worst ATS margin in road games, so this is a confluence of factors that should result in another dominant home performance by the Rockets.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Mississippi Valley St/Gonzaga First Half Over 66.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This total is really not factoring in the situation for Gonzaga tonight. The Bulldogs fell flat on their faces late on Saturday against Washington, scoring just 3 points in the final 7 minutes of the game. That loss in that fashion is probably the best thing for anyone who wanted to back Gonzaga here in this otherwise sleepy spot as they have UConn on deck Friday night.
The Zags will need a bounce back to get their spirits up, and seeing the 355th team in adjusted defensive efficiency is just about perfect for that. MVSU is likely to give up 50 or more here, not uncommon for the Delta Devils against power schools, making this total very reachable. With that lookahead to UConn, expect Gonzaga to run this up early and hit the relatively low first half total in the process.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1787-1578 ATS (+89.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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