Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Charlotte Hornets Over 228 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
In an NBA season where the dominant theme has been games going under, it should be possible to find a high-scoring game when the teams have the metrics that these two do.
Charlotte is actually the best team to the over in the NBA, albeit at a fairly meager 61.5% rate. It’s thanks to the Hornets owning the worst defensive efficiency mark in the league while also leading in scoring. They also play at the 3rd-fastest pace, which suits Sacramento perfectly, as interim coach Alvin Gentry has made it clear that the Kings want to run as much as possible. That should make things difficult on Charlotte here tonight, as the Hornets are severely shorthanded.
I see all that causing minimal defensive effort though, which is the best recipe for an over. These teams put up 250 total points in their first meeting early this season, and I see another fast-paced game getting this one over as well.
Degenerates
NBA Cleveland Cavaliers PICK @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The wheels are coming off for the Wolves again with four straight losses, and now they face one of the most surprising teams in the league. Cleveland is not just winning games but covering at an incredible rate, and are currently on a 9-0 ATS run. Their cover percentage of 79.2% and their ATS plus/minus of plus-7.7 points are both best in the NBA.
The defense has started getting exposed for the Wolves, having allowed 10 points more than the season average during their last 7 games. And don't forget that Patrick Beverley and D’Angelo Russell are still questionable for this game as well. Monitor their status up until tip-off, but regardless I just have to fade this team until they get it back on track, especially against a cover machine like the Cavaliers.
Tiny Nick is 481-368 ATS (+87.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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