Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/07

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UTEP @ Kansas -18.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Last year’s UTEP team put a scare into Kansas, with the Jayhawks only surviving by 5 points. This season’s version of both squads is vastly different, and it should create another Kansas blowout.

There’s just no way I’m stepping in front of this Kansas squad right now, as they’re looking every bit like a team out to atone for their Dayton loss. They’ve put up 96 and 95 points in the two games since, showing why this was expected to be one of the best offenses Bill Self has ever had. I just don’t see how a slow-paced and poor-shooting UTEP team keeps up here. The Miners struggle from everywhere on the floor, and their inflated defensive metrics will get a dose of reality against the 6th-best team in offensive efficiency.

While this game is in Kansas City it's still somewhat of a home-court advantage for KU, and their two true home games were 26 and 29 point wins. That’s more of where I expect this final margin to end up, so I love the value I’m seeing in this number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Syracuse vs. Villanova -8 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

In early March we’ll probably be having the annual conversation about Syracuse as a bubble team after a string of conference wins. But this is December, and I see the Orange continuing their typical non-conference struggles against their toughest opponent yet.

Villanova is simply a bad matchup for Syracuse. The Wildcats have the style and shooters to beat the zone defense from deep. Nova attempts a high volume of 3-pointers, shoots it at the 7th-best percentage from long range, and tonight faces the 247th team in 3-point defense. Syracuse has already faced two teams who play a similar offensive style in Colgate and Auburn, losing those games by 15 and 21 points, respectively.

Even though this is a neutral-court game, I still think this Villanova team is underappreciated and undervalued. They have a +16.5 average scoring margin this season despite facing some of the best teams in the country. I see another double-digit win for them here given how strong the matchup advantage is.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/LA Lakers Over 219 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

I don’t know what’s gotten into the Boston Celtics lately, but they’ve gone nuclear to start this west coast road trip. I see a decent chance of that continuing tonight against a Lakers team that loves to play fast and is out for revenge.

The Lakers are still 2nd in the NBA in pace, and while the Celtics are all the way down at 22nd, you can’t ignore the fact that they’ve scored 275 points in their last 2 games. I see them being able to continue that hot streak against a Lakers team that just hasn’t put it together defensively this season. That’s especially true at Staples Center as the Lakers allow 113.6 PPG at home, the most in the league, which has led to a 10-5 home record to the over.

I’m sure the Lakers also remember the 130-108 beating that Boston issued in the first matchup this season. That added motivation combined with a red-hot Celtics offense should add up to an over in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 477-366 ATS (+88 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.