Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/07

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) New England Patriots/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 30.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

You just have to hold your nose and do it, because we’re in such a unique time for the NFL. There hasn’t been a total this low in the NFL since 2005, but the starting quarterbacks across the league that season were miles ahead of what we’ve been left with this year. Tonight features the backup quarterback from two teams who came into the year starting guys who probably shouldn’t be in the league.

Add in injuries to the lead running backs for both teams, and I just don’t know where the points are coming from tonight. I don’t think they’ll come from the Patriots, who have the distinction of being the first team since 1938 to hold their opponent to 10 or fewer points three straight games and lose all three. But the Steelers will have a tough time doing much against that hot defense, especially with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. Pour one out for Al Michaels tonight, this is going to be ugly.

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Mitch Trubisky Under 0.5 Interceptions (+115)

0.75 Unit – Allen Robinson Over 1.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Allen Robinson Over 2.5 Receptions (+240)

0.25 Unit – Mitch Trubisky Under 17.5 Completions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Mitch Trubisky Under 0.5 Passing TD’s (+160)

0.25 Unit – Steelers Defense/Special Teams Anytime TD (+650)

0.25 Unit – Patriots Defense/Special Teams Anytime TD (+1100)

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU

Obviously I love my Cyclones, and I think they make a statement here in the Cy-Hawk on the hardwood rivalry game. Iowa State has had some impressive offensive showings this season at home, playing at a faster tempo than I ever would have expected. Of course you have to consider how poor the competition has been, but how does Iowa not qualify as a poor defensive team?

The Hawkeyes are just 138th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and notably for this bet are 315th in first half points allowed. Iowa just doesn’t care about defense, can’t guard on the road, and want to get out and run no matter what. That should create a great opportunity for ISU to get over this early total, a number they’ve cleared in every home game while averaging 46.8 points.

Degenerates

NBA Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers First Quarter Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN

I actually think the full-game total is too high in this one, as a pseudo playoff environment might encourage these teams to actually focus on defense at times. But I think both squads get off to a hot start with their normal styles of play taking over early. Indiana leads the league in first quarter scoring and is second-worst in points allowed, so these two up-tempo teams with tons of defensive issues should see an early track meet. This number presents some natural value being less than 25% of the full-game total, so I’ll take a shot that offense is the story early here.

Tiny Nick is 1761-1540 ATS (+93.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.