Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks -2 First Quarter (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
A full-game spread that appears a little discounted here is creating a massive discount on the derivative numbers, and that’s where I’m looking to jump in, given these teams’ trends. I’ve been backing Milwaukee frequently in the first quarter, where they tend to dominate, but usually have to deal with spreads a point or two higher than this.
However, this is a great spot to back a Bucks team that’s third in the NBA for average first-quarter margin. I particularly like taking them in spots like this against teams with negative average margins for the first quarter. That’s what we have in the Kings, who are 21st in average margin at minus-0.8 points. It’s the defense that fails the Kings, giving up the fifth-most points in first quarters this season. Milwaukee has a fully healthy and dangerous roster now, so backing that unit at this cheap price is definitely worthwhile.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Navy/West Virginia Over 134.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU
The power rating for Navy is still based too much on their history from last season when the Midshipmen were one of the lowest-scoring and slowest teams in the country. To be fair, the pace hasn’t exactly picked up much, as they’re still 300th in tempo, but the scoring certainly has. It’s a matter of shooting and efficiency, as Navy is 50th in true shooting percentage and 45th in offensive efficiency. The biggest driver? Navy is taking the 22nd-most threes and making them at the 7th-best percentage.
That’s helped them games go 7-1 to the over so far, and another should be coming here. What hasn’t been great for Navy is their defense, particularly on the road where they’re allowing 74 points per game. A highly efficient West Virginia offense that’s 30th in scoring should do plenty of damage here against that poor road defense. But this is not your usual Bob Huggins lockdown defense either, and they struggle against the three-ball. That should add up to a much higher-scoring game than anticipated.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 972-810 ATS (+89.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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