Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/06

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Washington Wizards Over 239 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PH

I’m glad to have Washington back in action, especially against a very strong offense, as it’s pure over fuel. With all the totals we’re seeing north of 240 this season, I’m surprised that this one isn’t in that range. These teams went for 274 points in their first meeting, and that’s not out of the question given how both squads are playing defensively right now.

Everyone knows how atrocious the Wizards are on defense, allowing 130-plus points in 6 of their past 9 games and ranked 29th in defensive rating. But the 76ers haven’t been great on that side of the court lately either, allowing 120-plus in 3 of their past 4 games. The key here should be Philly’s 2nd-rated offense torching Washington though, and as long as the Sixers are willing to play up-tempo we’ll see plenty of points.

NBA (1 Unit) Brooklyn Nets/Atlanta Hawks Over 241.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

I’m also glad to have Atlanta back in action as this team is also just pure over material, especially at home where they’re 7-1 to the over with the best plus/minus to the total. The Hawks are second in scoring and fourth in pace, a good combination against any team that isn’t going to drag the game into a slog. The Nets are not likely to do that, as their other games against up-tempo opponents with poor defenses have 5-1 over this total.

That includes the first meeting between these squads that saw 262 points in regulation before tacking on another 30 in overtime. A key in that game which I think carries over tonight is Brooklyn’s three-point shooting, as they’re 2nd in percentage and third in attempts. Atlanta is 29th in three-point percentage allowed at home, so look for the Nets to pile up points from downtown to help this one get over the number again.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Cam Johnson Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+105)

Johnson lit up the Hawks in the first meeting for 5 makes from deep, and has gone over this number in exactly half his games this season. Against an awful perimeter defense from the Hawks, the plus-juice return here is too good to pass up.

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder -1.5 @ Houston Rockets (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

As long as this number doesn’t turn out to be a trap, it’s just a little too short. The Thunder being second in the Western Conference is no fluke, this team can play, but the line here reflects their years of ineptitude. It also reflects Houston’s excellent mark of 7-1-1 ATS and 8-1 straight up in home games, which is impressive on the surface.

But I’m skeptical of the competition that record has been built against, as four of the wins are against the Kings and Nuggets when those teams were missing star players. Due to some schedule quirks it’s not out of line to say the Thunder are the best team Houston has faced all season. If that’s the case, then I like the chances for OKC to come out of here with a win and cover on the short number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Penn State/Maryland Under 138.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on BTN

After a strong start to the season, Penn State has collapsed defensively, allowing 84.7 PPG the past 4 games. But those were some quality offensive opponents, and I just don’t believe that Maryland can take advantage here. The Terps can’t shoot, period. It’s actually amazing how bad things have gotten in College Park, with this team down to 298th in effective field goal rate and 359th in three-point percentage.

Further complicating matters for the Terrapins is leading scorer Jahmir Young being iffy for this game with an ankle injury. But Maryland really gets after you defensively, ranked 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and their glacial pace keeps unders alive and well. I think there are too many factors working against offense in general for this game, so I’ll take the under on a total that’s been attracting plenty of sharp attention.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Rice/Houston First Half Under 66 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

When you go play at Houston, they guard you from the parking lot. The Cougars are so elite defensively at home, it makes totals like this pretty tough to reach, especially with them giving their top defensive effort to start the game. Houston leads the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, scoring, and first half scoring, allowing just 22.1 first half PPG and only 17.8 at home.

I’m not seeing how Rice pushes past those averages, which would then require Houston to score well above their norm in these situations. Their other four home games against cupcake opponents like Rice have seen an average of 57.2 points before halftime. The Owls don’t shoot particularly well, just 257th in effective field goal rate, and are terrible from downtown at 311th nationally. Houston will not let them play at their up-tempo style, instead grinding this first half down into a very low-scoring affair.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas A&M Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on SEC Network

As an Iowa State fan, I had to look up the last time they threatened the century mark against a power conference opponent, and it was 2019 when Tyrese Halliburton was still a Cyclone. Well this DePaul squad just let ISU put up 99 in their last game, so one of the country’s best offensive teams in Texas A&M should have a field day in this one.

The Aggies are up to 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite getting shut down in their previous game at Virginia last week. They should want to bounce back from that rough outing, and DePaul offers the perfect victim at 302nd in points allowed and 202nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. KenPom has Texas A&M right at 83 in this game, but the added motivation and terrible current defensive form for DePaul has me believing the Aggies run it up.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) SMU/Arizona State Under 142.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on FS1

I fully do not understand the line movement on this total that has it so high now. Arizona State games just don’t reach this level of scoring, as the Sun Devils are playing some of the best defense in the country. ASU is now up to 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are allowing just 60.8 PPG at home, with all 4 home games going under this total.

SMU is also playing excellent defense, ranked 53rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, and their offense is not one that will threaten Arizona State tonight. The Mustangs have their first true road game here, and the hostile environment in Tempe will help slow down their offense even more. Not one metrics site I’ve seen has this even close to the 140’s including KenPom at 137, so this becomes an easy under play for me.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1757-1536 ATS (+93.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.