Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/04

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals/Jacksonville Jaguars Under 40 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I’m riding the primetime unders trend here even though it’s getting pretty well-known at this stage. With all primetime games going 27-11 to the under and all but one Monday Night Football game going under, it’s simply not something I want to fight against. That’s in a normal situation, but add in a great defense facing a backup quarterback and I think we can stay well under tonight.

The Jaguars are very quietly climbing the ranks defensively, up to 5th in DVOA with the top rush defense. That should be key tonight as I don’t expect Cincinnati to let Jake Browning air it out, even with a healthy complement of receivers. The question becomes whether Jacksonville decides to run up the score on a regressing Bengals defense. But with a tough road game ahead on a short week, I think they’ll run the ball and get out of here, keeping the game under the total.

MNF Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Anytime TD (+340)

0.5 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Evan Engram Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Evan Engram 75-plus Receiving Yards (+270)

0.25 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Travis Etienne Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics/Indiana Pacers Over 242.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

It’s the Pacers, so the over is automatically the first thing to consider for this game. One point of concern is the status of Tyrese Halliburton who is dealing with an illness, so monitor his status going into this game. But the total has been on the rise, so there must be speculation that he’ll be available.

Halliburton was out on Saturday though and in typical Pacers fashion the game saw 273 points. He also missed the first meeting with Boston this year, and that hit 259 points with the Celtics doing most of the work. The Pacers are just married to this up-tempo style, so I think a powerful Boston offense will score plenty to put this total in play.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Sacramento Kings Over 237.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

These teams have played twice already this season, with neither meeting getting all that close to this total. But Keegan Murray was hurt midway through the first game and missed the second entirely, really hampering the Sacramento offense. Both teams are mostly healthy for this one, and I think it produces an up-tempo style.

The Kings can dictate that tempo better than almost anyone, and a Pelicans team that shoots it really well can benefit by cashing in extra possessions. The NBA also needs a compelling product for this tournament game, so the conspiracy theorist in me also expects plenty of points tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 43 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on BTN

Purdue is going to be playing with a vengeance in this game after getting upset at Northwestern on Friday night. What better way to bounce back from that loss than running it up on a team that plays no defense? Iowa is again struggling on that end of the floor, but have only played one opponent that made them pay for it. That was a road game at Creighton, and the Jays put up 43 on them before halftime. The Boilermakers enter this game with a better adjusted offensive efficiency mark than Creighton, are full of motivation, and should run it up on this bad defense.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arkansas State/Alabama First Half Over 79 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on SEC Network

It’s all about Arkansas State here and what happens to their porous defense against quality competition. The Red Wolves have visited two power-conference opponents this season, and it did not go well for their 322nd rated defense. Their game at Iowa’s 15th-best offense saw 88 points at halftime, and their game at Wisconsin’s 19th-best offense had 97 points in the first half.

Alabama is now up to second in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, along with being second in first half scoring. Their elite scoring ability and fast pace should turn this first half into a track meet, at least on the level of Arkansas State’s other clashes with power conference teams this season.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1748-1531 ATS (+91.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.