Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/03

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Detroit Lions Team Total Over 25.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

We saw the return of Jared Goff's ugly side on Thanksgiving and the Lions still put up 22 points on a bad defense. Today they’ll see another defense that’s playing poorly right now, and is dealing with a long list of injuries. The Saints have actually turned into more of an over team recently as their defense has surrendered 25.2 PPG the past 5 weeks, without playing any particularly elite offenses. I trust that Detroit has used the extra time off to fix some of their issues, and will be able to exploit this New Orleans defense for plenty of points.

NFL (1 Unit) Atlanta Falcons/NY Jets Under 33.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

There’s a saying that when Vegas goes low, you should go lower. This low of a number is designed to scare you off the opportunity on an easy under, or even trick you into taking the over. I’m following the old adage here though, especially since totals of 37 or less have gone 22-4-1 to the under since the 2020 season. Two teams who can’t and don’t want to throw the ball on a normal day now face each other in windy and rainy conditions. That should keep the ball on the ground, the clock running, the punters busy, and the game under this low number.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Sharp money has loved Houston this week, and I kind of do too. I think the only reason this line isn’t considerably bigger is the 5-game winning streak for Denver, but that streak doesn’t impress me much. When digging into those 5 games you see multiple backup quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes with the flu, and some incredibly narrow escapes. The defensive turnaround in Denver is also somewhat built on that luck factor, and it has to run out eventually. These are two teams in the thick of the wild card race so it’ll be hard fought, but the Texans have done more against better competition, and I’m siding with them today.

NFL (2 Unit) San Francisco 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles First Half Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

We talked on my podcast about how a good weather report would mean we love the opportunity for points early in this game. That favorable weather outlook has been gifted to us, so this becomes my favorite pick of the week. Both of these teams have been elite at scoring in the first half the past couple seasons, as both offenses do very well with scripted possessions. Eagles home games have been an excellent bet for first half points, going 4-1 over this total with 25.8 points on average. Both teams should be able to throw on vulnerable opposing secondaries, and this game should get off to a hot start.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Give the 49ers their full complement of stud skill position players and offensive linemen, plus a healthy Brock Purdy, and they’re basically a shoe-in for around 4 touchdowns. When all the roster pieces are available they average 32.4 points and are 8-0 over this total. When one or more of those players has been out they've scored exactly 17 points in all 3 games. This seems pretty simple to me against a Philly defense that struggles to cover the exact passing scheme San Fran excels at.

Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

The 49ers have had this game circled for a long time. If you listen to the team talk about their NFC title game loss last winter, they were supremely confident that they were going to light up a vulnerable Eagles defense. Then Brock Purdy got hurt and you know the rest, but this has revenge game written all over it. The Eagles are in an incredibly difficult stretch of games, have been gassed on defense in them, and are at a rest disadvantage here. I really like the 49ers to both pile up the points and come away with the win today.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 First Half @ Green Bay Packers (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

These teams have weird problems in opposite halves, with the Chiefs struggling to score after halftime and the Packers struggling before half. That has me only looking to the Chiefs early on as Green Bay is 28th in first half scoring, and dead last in home games averaging just 4.6 points. Kansas City seemed to get a wakeup call after choking the Eagles game away and sleepwalking early last week, so I think they keep it going early in this one.

The Packers are due for regression off their shocking Thanksgiving win, especially now that they have to face a defense that can actually cover and tackle. I would not recommend laying the full-game number here given KC’s second-half issues, but a plus-juice return for them to exploit a bad first-half team is good value in my opinion.

NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (+155)

0.75 Unit – Tim Boyle Under 176.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bailey Zappe Under 188.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Rhamondre Stevenson Over 91.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 76.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Taysom Hill Anytime TD (+160)

0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Diontae Johnson Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – James Conner Over 73.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Najee Harris Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jaylen Warren Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jaylen Waddle Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)

1 Unit – Tyreek Hill Over 7.5 Receptions (+105)

0.25 Unit – Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD (+120)

0.5 Unit – Tyreek Hill 125-Plus Receiving Yards (+165)

0.25 Unit – Brian Robinson Anytime TD (+140)

0.75 Unit – Sam Howell Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Nico Collins Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bryce Young Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Brandon Aiyuk Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 64.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – AJ Brown Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – AJ Brown Anytime TD (+130)

0.5 Unit – Devonta Smith Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Brock Purdy Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – George Kittle Anytime TD (+165)

0.75 Unit – Jerome Ford Over 70.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 91.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

0.75 Unit – Isaiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit- Rashee Rice Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1724-1514 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.