Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/30

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys -3

This should be a blowout (more on that later) but I can’t pass up the discounted number here. Mostly I’m teasing this down to get a teaser partner for the over, because I think it’s a cakewalk for my Cowboys tonight. All they do is crush bad to mediocre teams, and I think we’re finally seeing the wheels come off for Seattle after a solid start. The injury to Kenneth Walker makes them fairly one-dimensional and allows the Dallas pass rush to be unleashed. Geno Smith has just a 69.4 passer rating under pressure, which he will be all game once the Cowboys build a lead, and they won’t look back as usual.

Seattle Seahawks/Dallas Cowboys Over 41.5

I really like that this total can get below the key number of 6 touchdowns, because would anyone be shocked if Dallas scored 5 or 6 of them on their own? The Cowboys have gone over this total on their own in the past three home games, all against outmatched opponents like Seattle is. The Cowboys offense has hit its stride, and even a solid Seahawks defense is no match as evidenced by them getting lit up on Thanksgiving night. Remember that this is not your typical Thursday night primetime under situation with both teams on normal rest from Thanksgiving, so I expect plenty of points here.

NFL (1 Unit) Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys -9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Dak Prescott is finally shining in this offense, and doing what he’s supposed to against bad teams. As I mentioned above, Dallas simply rolls at home and against weaker opponents, and I’m here for their bullying. The Cowboys are now 11-2 ATS in their past 13 home games, with 5 in a row by 20 or more points.

Their league-leading average ATS margin at home is a ridiculous plus-18.7 points, and they should pad that number tonight. Dak is now 30-11-1 ATS as a touchdown-plus favorite, the second-most profitable QB for that split the past 20 years to one Tom Brady. I’d say that’s good company to be in, and shows just how serious Dallas is about running out opponents like they’ll see tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Dallas Cowboys First Half -5.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

In their 9 games this season against teams you’d consider worse than them, Dallas has put up a plus-11.3 average first half margin and is 7-2 against this number. Sometimes it takes them a little bit to get rolling, but they’ve had a lot of success the week after Thanksgiving recently so I’ll back them to take another solid lead into halftime.

Bonus Thursday Night Football Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Geno Smith Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (+100)

0.75 Unit – Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions (-150)

0.5 Unit – Brandin Cooks Over 3.5 Receptions (+115)

0.25 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+180)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 222.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

These teams met earlier this month at Target Center, combining for 218 points to go under a 224 point total. Since that game, the Wolves have improved defensively, Utah has regressed offensively, and both teams have suffered key injuries. That first meeting saw Lauri Markkanen and Anthony Edwards combine for 53 of the 218 points scored, and neither will be on the floor tonight.

Same teams, same venue, but just 1.5 points less on the total with each team’s best offensive weapon sidelined? I’m simply not understanding the math there. I just have to look to the under tonight, especially with the Jazz scoring just 102.8 PPG their past 5 and being fairly incompetent offensively since Markkanen went out.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/San Antonio Spurs First Half Over 126 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

This is all about pace, and hoping that San Antonio can be effective against a poor defense. The Spurs fly up and down the floor, ranked 3rd in tempo, but their shooting has been an issue. They’re a competent first half scoring team though, middle of the pack for first half points at home. Atlanta comes into this game allowing the second-most first half points in the league, a product of their 5th-worst defensive efficiency and 4th-worst effective field goal defense, so the Spurs will contribute here.

The Hawks are also right behind San Antonio at 4th in tempo, so this will be a track meet from the opening tip. But I’d expect Atlanta to contribute the bulk of the scoring here, as their elite offense that’s 3rd in first-half scoring meets the league’s 3rd-worst defense. Keep an eye on the status of Victor Wembenyama who is questionable for this game, but ultimately I think we’ll see a fast enough pace with lackluster defense that gets over the big early total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas Team Total Over 78.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Longhorn Network

I’m a little surprised to see the full-game total here set at just 137 points, but I’m taking advantage of what that does to the isolated total. Texas hasn’t scored less than 80 points against anyone but defending champ UConn last week, handling their offensive business against all other opponents. Most of those have been serious cupcakes, and they’ll get another tonight against Texas State.

While the Bobcats have decent defensive numbers they’ve also played a fairly weak schedule themselves, and aren’t going to fare well against the country’s number 24 team in adjusted offensive efficiency. They already tangled with one Big12 team this year, and Oklahoma put 93 points on them. Texas is a deeper and more talented offensive team than the Sooners, so I expect them to continue their run of 80-plus in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1713-1505 ATS (+88.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.