Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz/Golden State Warriors Over 239 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA
It’s starting to look like Utah is coming back down to earth, with a 2-5 record in the past 7 games. What’s key about those games is their defense getting markedly worse, allowing 119.4 PPG to a schedule that isn’t exactly full of prolific offensive teams. So against Golden State's prolific offense tonight, I’m expecting the Jazz to surrender quite a few points.
Utah should get some of their own, though, as the Warriors are still 27th in points allowed and bottom-5 in most other defensive metrics. These are both excellent offenses built for shootouts as well, with both squads ranking top-10 in scoring, shooting, 3-point attempts, and pace. That’s the simplest explanation of why they’re both top-5 for average plus/minus to the over, and despite a high total here, I think all those factors converge for another shootout.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Arizona State @ Arizona -4 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on FS1
The Territorial Cup hasn’t left Tempe since 2016, while Arizona has consistently been one of the worst programs in the country. But this is the best chance the Wildcats have had to turn the tables on their in-state rival, and I think they get it done here. All you really need to do is compare these teams in how they’ve looked against the cream of the Pac-12 crop. Arizona has put up much more of a fight behind their consistent offense, even knocking off UCLA two weeks ago.
Given the coaching change and uncertainty at quarterback for the Sun Devils, they just haven’t put up enough effort this season for me to back them on a short number. They have an extremely poor defense, and while that’s also the case for Arizona, I trust the Wildcats offense far more if this turns into a track meet. Quarterback Jayden de Laura and his excellent receivers have shown the ability to score on anyone, and I think they do it at will in a spot where they’ll have far more motivation.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Nebraska/Iowa Under 38.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on BTN
Even with Casey Thompson back at quarterback for Nebraska, I’m just not seeing how they put up many points today if any. This is a spot where a win for Iowa gets them a return trip to the Big 10 title game, and they’ll need to rely on their defense to do it. The struggles of Iowa’s offense are well-known, as they’re an embarrassing 116th in scoring and 130th in yardage.
It doesn’t get any easier for them today without tight end and top receiving target Sam LaPorta, so the Hawkeyes will need to rely more on the ground game. That’s not exactly their strength, but it does happen to be Nebraska’s weakness as the Huskers are 113th in rushing yards allowed. That should allow Iowa to control the clock and the game today, going under this total for the 9th time on the season.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 958-797 ATS (+88.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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