Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/24

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Miami Dolphins -2.5 First Quarter @ NY Jets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Every time I’ve seen the Jets play this season, it seems like they get off to a slow start. Obviously their horrible offense isn’t doing them any favors, but it also felt like their excellent defense struggles early in games. Well, that’s backed up by the stats, as the Jets are dead last in the NFL for first quarter points allowed at 7.0 per game. And it’s even worse at home where they’re allowing 8.8 per game.

Miami is not an offense you want to start slowly against, and the Dolphins should have a better start today after some post-bye sluggishness last week. I just don’t see Tim Boyle being the solution to New York’s early-game issues, so I’ll back Miami to take a solid first-quarter lead today.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Tyreek Hill Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I’m not worried about New York’s elite cornerbacks here. Cheetah is simply on a mission to cross the 2,000 yard mark and nobody can cover him right now, so I’ll take the over on the lowest total you’ll see for him all season.

NBA (1 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Another Timberwolves game, another disrespectful point spread. I simply don’t understand how this number is shorter than the opening line against Philadelphia before Joel Embiid was announced out. I think it shows that books are still struggling to accurately price this Wolves squad and adjust to how truly good of basketball they’re playing.

And the Kings come into this game with a significant injury concern of their own, missing Keegan Murray tonight. He’s been essential to their success this year, and Sacramento has really struggled since he hurt his back midway through the game on Monday night. The Kings already weren’t performing at the elite offensive levels of last season, and missing such a key player against the NBA's top-rated defense will be trouble. The Wolves should be rested, confident, and ready to take down another West contender and extend their 7-0 home ATS record.

NBA (1 Unit) Detroit Pistons/Indiana Pacers 1st Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

The full-game total for this matchup is at 246.5 which makes this derivative total highly discounted. I’m always looking to pick off those kinds of numbers, especially in a game like this. The Pacers just continue to run and score, with nobody able to stop them, certainly not a bottom-tier Pistons defense.

While Detroit does struggle to score overall, they’re actually much better in opening quarters. They also play at a relatively fast tempo so there will be no style conflicts here. But Indiana is the main factor here, with their first quarters this season going 11-3 over this total and averaging 64.8 points. This should be another fast start, and I love the discount compared to an inflated full-game number.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Oregon State @ Oregon -7.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FOX

We’ve reached the final weekend of the regular season, which means one last opportunity to back Oregon early at home. The Ducks still lead the country in first half scoring and are 15th in first half points allowed, a good combination no matter how you look at it. They also have an incredible amount of motivation here, as style points will certainly help their CFP case if they wind up a 1-loss conference champion.

So in the final installment of their in-state rivalry, I think the Ducks can roll early at home thanks to a few key schematic and matchup advantages. Oregon has been excellent at defending the run style of Oregon State, and their Cover 1 approach will keep DJ Uiagalelei in check. The Beavers also really struggle with tackling in space, ranked 131st in PFF’s tackling grade, so the elite Oregon skill players should take advantage. Add in the home crowd and Oregon’s tendency to start fast, and I see them holding another comfortable halftime lead tonight.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Baylor/Florida Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Baylor offense really appears to have turned the corner, especially fixing their three-point shooting woes. The Bears are all the way up to 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom, and should have another matchup here that’s favorable to scoring. Florida’s tempo will create a lot more possessions in this game for the Bears to capitalize on, and Baylor will have no problem playing at a fast pace.

The Bears just put up 88 points against a very slow-paced Oregon State team on Wednesday, so they’re obviously locked in offensively. As are the Gators, who are 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th in points per game. These teams just keep cashing over tickets, combining for a 7-2 over record this year, so I’ll look for another in a game KenPom projects in the 160’s.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1675-1487 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.