Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/23

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Tiny Turkey Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -0.5: 11:30 AM CT on FOX

I have no doubt the Lions and their fans are going to be fired up for this one. They’re very rarely favored on Thanksgiving, and haven’t had this good of a start to any season since 1962. So they’re deserving favorites here, but I just want to ask them to win this game. That’s important because favorites of more than a touchdown on Thanksgiving are 27-4 straight up. Green Bay comes into this game very banged up and overvalued off a fluky win over the self-destructive Chargers, so don’t make this overly complicated.

Washington Commanders/Dallas Cowboys Over 41.5: 3:30 PM CT on CBS

All the Cowboys do to bad teams, especially at home, is run it up on them in a blowout. That makes this teased total reachable by Dallas on their own since they’ve already done it twice in rolling other bad teams at home this year. The Commanders can’t stop a nose bleed as evidenced by the lowly Giants scoring 24 on them last week. But Sam Howell and this loaded skill group can still put up points, especially once the Cowboys ease up defensively, so look for this game to easily clear this discounted number.

San Francisco 49ers PK @ Seattle Seahawks: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I’ll close this out with just asking the 49ers to win, a team many sharp NFL bettors have as the highest power-rated team in the league when healthy. The loss of Talanoa Hufanga at safety certainly hurts the back end of San Fran’s defense that was already a little vulnerable. But I don’t think that a very banged-up Geno Smith can take advantage on a short week, or Drew Lock if he has to step in again. The Seahawks are without Ken Walker here as well, and will not be able to trade punches with the dynamic 49ers offense. Since 2005, home teams that are underdogs on Thanksgiving have gone 1-22 straight up, so I just want a 49ers win to close this teaser out.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -4 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:30 AM CT on FOX

With how fired up I’m sure the Lions will be, they should come out with a purpose in this game and establish a solid early lead. They were sleepwalking early on Sunday against the Bears, and I don’t think Dan Campbell will allow that to happen again. The first half futility for Green Bay has continued to plague them this season, ranked 31st in first half scoring. They’re also missing so many key players today with many others dealing with injury that I have to believe the Lions will jump on them early and not look back.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys -13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on CBS

Of course I’m betting my Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but this year I’m expecting better results. There have been some ugly Dallas performances on recent Turkey Days, most notably the loss to the Raiders in 2021 and a thrashing at the hands of this Washington team 3 years ago. But I just can’t get past what the Cowboys have done to bad teams this year at home, going 4-0 ATS with a 17.9 average ATS margin. Dallas also has a plus-23 average point differential against teams with losing records this season, and this should be another blowout.

NFL (0.75 Unit) San Francisco 49ers -4 First Half @ Seattle Seahawks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on NBC

The 49ers appear to be fully back from their injury-plagued losing streak, comfortably covering the past two weeks. They’ve also flexed their muscles early in those games, building solid halftime leads as has become the norm for San Fran when they’re on their A-game.

Again, this comes down to the 49ers being able to have explosiveness on offense as they’re completely healthy on that side of the ball now. Seattle just can’t go shot-for-shot with them in their current injury-plagued state, especially at quarterback. I expect Kyle Shanahan to be in attack mode early to build a solid lead before half.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): 49ers Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Once again, health of the 49ers offense is the most important factor here. Now that all four of Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk are healthy, the San Francisco offense can go back to operating at peak performance. When at least one of those players is out the 49ers average 21.3 PPG, but when all are available they’re scoring 30.7 PPG with a plus-17.6 point differential. The Seahawks are a bottom-5 defense for red zone success rate, so look for the 49ers to pile up points today.

Thanksgiving NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Amon-Ra St Brown Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jordan Love Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Romeo Doubs Anytime Touchdown (+210)

0.75 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Sam Howell Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zach Charbonnet Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Kittle Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Iowa State -11 versus VCU (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on ESPN2

This will be the perfect game for me to check in on when the Cowboys go to halftime, and I think my Cyclones should have an easy time of things today. They’re just the deeper, more experienced, and more talented team in this matchup, especially with VCU not being the same after losing their coach and top players to other schools.

Iowa State hasn’t really played anyone yet, but they’ve still made it up to 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom, giving them a big edge over a Rams squad without much offense. KenPom makes this exactly an 11-point margin, so I’ll cautiously lay it here and hope for another blowout by ISU like their other games have been so far.

Tiny Nick is 1669-1482 ATS (+81.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.