Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/22

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

If the Wolves are for real, they’re going to show it here. I happen to think that Philadelphia, when healthy, is arguably the best team in the East, so this will be a challenge. But Minnesota enjoys a big advantage situationally here, as they’re catching the 76ers on a back-to-back with travel. Not only that, last night’s game went to overtime, so the Sixers have that much more working against them compared to a fully rested Wolves squad. I’ll take a shot here that the Wolves can use that rest advantage to extend their perfect 6-0 ATS and straight up record in Target Center.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic +2 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

The Magic are quietly hot, the Nuggets are quietly not, and I’m looking at one incredibly massive trend to continue here. Orlando is now 13-1 ATS in first halves this season, pretty remarkable stuff from a team that continues to fly under the radar. It’s thanks in large part to their defense, now up to best in the league for defensive rating.

That should make it easier for them to slow a Nuggets team without Jamal Murray, and his absence has definitely been noticeable. Their biggest struggles have come on the road, and they've posted a minus-2.1 average first half margin away from home. Compare that to Orlando who owns the best first half margin in the league overall and are plus-13.4 in home games, and I’m on the Magic to have another good start tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Indiana Pacers Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

As I was watching Indiana and Atlanta rack up 309 points last night, I thought to myself "I can’t imagine taking the under in a Pacers game." I’m not backing down from that stance here just because Toronto and their much worse offense is in town. The Raptors are actually a middle-of-the-pack team in tempo, which is good enough to create the style needed here with the Pacers racing up and down the court. Both teams are also on back-to-backs with travel, so defensive effort won’t be at the highest level. It never is for Indiana, and this team is so combustible on both ends of the floor that you have to take the over on what is a massively discounted number compared to yesterday.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alcorn State/UT-Arlington Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Alcorn State is on a back-to-back here after giving up 93 to TCU last night. The Braves really can’t stop anything, ranked 325th in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom. But they also play a fairly up-tempo style, and with no rest those factors should combine to equal very little defense. Arlington is capable of taking advantage, and should be looking to take out frustrations on someone after a 101-56 loss at Arizona over the weekend. The Mavericks have already put up pretty big numbers against other weak defensive teams this year while also struggling on defense, so expect plenty of points in this under-the-radar game.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida/Pittsburgh Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Florida has completely changed their style this season to an up-tempo attack that has produced a lot of points. It’s working for them, as the Gators are up to 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and even got a game with Virginia into the 140’s. Combining them with Pittsburgh, who is just as high-powered offensively and considerably faster in pace, should make this a track meet. The Panthers are 38th in adjusted tempo this season, have already topped 100 points twice, and are 3rd nationally in scoring. With these teams already a combined 6-2 over this total on the year, I’m seeing another in this neutral court showcase game.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) New Mexico/Rice Over 164 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on ESPN+

Yesterday’s high total was no problem for New Mexico, who got into the anticipated shootout with Toledo. Now they’ll face a Rice team that can’t guard a parked car, ranked 312th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just gave up 103 last night to Indiana State. The key last night for New Mexico was facing a terrible two-point percentage defense. Tonight they’ll face another terrible one as Rice is 348th in opponent two-point shooting. The Lobos won’t be afraid to run it up, neither team has had much rest here, and I see a game in the 170’s or beyond.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1665-1480 ATS (+80.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.