Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/21

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Atlanta Hawks Over 251.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

I’ve been betting on the NBA for a long time, and thought I had seen it all. But I’ve never seen a total open at 250 points and actually get bet up, so we’re really breaking new ground this year. I don’t know how you can look at these two teams and want anything to do with an under, so I understand the line movement. Pacers games have gotten to 250-plus points in 7 of 12 this season as they fly up and down the floor every night at the league’s fastest pace.

In order to hit a total this massive, Indiana needs to face an excellent offensive team with a poor defense that’s also willing to play fast. That describes Atlanta fairly well, and I think both teams are willing to play the style necessary to reach this number. With this being an in-season tournament game where aggregate scoring matters, look for both teams to fill it up all game long.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas/Marquette Over 157 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Maui Invitational always delivers compelling matchups, and this one feels like an Elite 8 or Final 4 preview. That means this will probably be tight and hard-fought to the end, bringing in the foul game to pad points down the stretch. But I think there will be plenty of offense throughout the game with how good both teams are on that end of the floor. Particularly Kansas, who leads the country in shooting, but has shown some leaky defense against better competition. Marquette’s excellent scoring threats should take advantage, and I think we see a free-flowing game with plenty of scoring tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Toledo/New Mexico Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 10:15 PM CT on FloHoops

Toledo lost a couple of key pieces from an elite offensive team last season, but they haven’t taken much of a step back at all this year. The Rockets are still an elite shooting team from beyond the arc, ranking 6th nationally in 3-point percentage. I think they can score easily on a New Mexico squad that really hasn’t been challenged by a strong offense yet, and is still just 96th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

But the Lobos should rack up plenty of points themselves, as their preference of scoring inside the arc finds the perfect victim. The Lobos live in the mid-range and the lane, and now face a Toledo team that’s 358th in 2-point percentage defense. Points should come easily for both teams here as this game gets over the high number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1663-1479 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.