Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/19

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Houston/East Carolina Over 67.5 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This game should be an aerial circus, which is something Houston is becoming fully accustomed to lately. The Cougars defense has completely collapsed in recent weeks, even outside of the ridiculousness of allowing SMU to hang 77 points. Their pass defense is atrocious, allowing not just massive overall yardage, but big numbers on a per-completion and per-attempt basis. That’s the reason why both elite and poor offenses are having field days against the Cougars.

East Carolina is a team that loves to throw as well behind senior quarterback Holton Ahlers, who is having an excellent season and will want to show out on Senior Day. But the East Carolina pass defense isn’t much better than their pitiful opponent today, and Houston can throw it on anyone. While ECU hasn’t played to this kind of a total, they have put up big numbers against the bad secondaries they’ve faced. The level of scoring needed to hit this over is nothing new for Houston, though, and with beautiful weather in Greenville, I’m seeing another Cougars game cruise over.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Ohio State/Maryland Over 62.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

Historically speaking, Ohio State doesn’t tend to cover in their games before playing Michigan, only going 2-9-1 ATS the past 12 years. But I’m not stepping in front of the Buckeyes right now, as they’re just too explosive on offense. If that trend continues, though, the lack of focus that allows Maryland to stay relatively close should result in plenty of points.

While the Terrapins are off consecutive awful weeks on offense, those were road games against two of the better defenses in the country. Returning home should allow Taulia Tagovailoa and Co. to get back to throwing over the top, which is the way to attack this Ohio State defense. They’ve had plenty of success against vulnerable secondaries this season, so expect them to get back on track offensively in a game that’s essentially their Super Bowl.

But even if the Buckeyes come out flat or sleepwalk through a portion of this game, they can turn it back on in a hurry. This offense is a cheat code, and a vulnerable Terps defense should surrender enough points to get this over the total.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma State/Oklahoma Over 66.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

Bedlam; need I say more? This matchup never ceases to be crazy, usually on the scoreboard, and this year promises to be no different. The past 5 meetings have averaged 76.6 points, and I actually think you’re getting a discount on this total. Questions around the availability of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders has held the total down, but I’m very confident he’ll be ready for this game as he was being held out specifically to be ready today.

In games where Sanders has been fully healthy the Cowboys are averaging 44.7 points, and should light up this awful Oklahoma defense. But the Oklahoma State defense has also been a consistent train wreck, especially in the back end where they struggle with coverage and tackling. They’ll have trouble with the explosiveness of the Sooners, who will want to ramp up the big plays again after an ugly game in the rain last week. This classic rivalry should have fireworks all night, and that will lead to plenty of points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Seattle/Portland Over 151 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on WCC Network

These are two high-flying offenses that make excellent partners for getting to an over. Seattle, in particular, is red-hot offensively behind point guard Cameron Tyson. The transfer from Houston has picked up right where he left off last season, putting up 35 and 32 points in his two games this year. He’s the perfect athletic point guard to attack a Portland defense that just got home from a long road trip, including a stop at elevation to play Air Force.

Those tired legs will struggle to stop a Seattle offense that loves to run and launch from beyond the arc. But this Portland offense is still excellent and returning home where they’ve scored 91 and 98 points will be a big boost. These teams are 41st and 42nd in effective field goal rate, but their defensive ratings have been lacking. With shooters all over the floor in this one, I see both squads lighting it up to cash the over.

Degenerates

NCAA Football Iowa @ Minnesota -2.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on FOX

Both of these teams have improved drastically in recent weeks, making this game a playoff of sorts for a shot at the Big 10 West division crown. It’s also a strength-versus-strength matchup of two teams that rely on their defenses. But I’m giving the edge here to Minnesota based on their ability to more effectively run the ball, even against a stout Iowa defense.

The Gopher offense has definitely trended upward with the quarterback change to Athan Kaliakmanis, who gives them a dual-threat dimension that’s been lacking for years. Combining him with the walking 100-yard game that is Mo Ibrahim makes the Gophers the better offensive team. Look for Minnesota to stack the box and dare Spencer Petras to beat them, which he hasn’t proven able to do against anyone this season. With a fired-up home crowd behind them in this rivalry game, the Gophers should be the superior team and reclaim Floyd of Rosedale.

Tiny Nick is 951-790 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.