Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 113 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK
The other day I said Oklahoma City overs would be an automatic play until further notice. I’m adjusting that only slightly here because this matchup presents a better opportunity with the isolated total. The full-game total actually came down a little from the open, but I’m staying away from that given Desmond Bane's absence and what he means to the Memphis offense.
The defense for the Grizzlies is just average, though, ranking 17th in points allowed, 15th in efficiency, and 16th in opponent effective field goal rate. I just don’t see that being enough to slow down this Thunder hot streak, with OKC getting over this total in 5 straight with an average of 127.8 points. The fact that Memphis is favored by a sizable number here only serves to hold down OKC's respective total, so ride their hot offense once more in this one.
NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks/Golden State Warriors Over 234.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s definitely an automatic play for me right now to take the over in a Golden State game. The Warriors are allowing the second-most points per game, and are just 26th in defensive rating on the season. But pair that awful defense with their still elite offense, and the result is them having the fourth-highest average margin to the total in the league.
The Knicks are actually 5th on that list, and given the matchup here, I’m seeing both teams padding those margins. Both of these teams are actually fairly poor on the defensive end, but there’s a key aspect of New York’s defense that should buoy scoring tonight. They’re the team that allows the most three-point attempts in the league, and the second-most makes. Facing a Warriors team that attempts the most three’s in the NBA should create the shootout necessary to get over this high of a total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 951-788 ATS (+89.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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