Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/17

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Tennessee Titans +9 @ Green Bay Packers

The regular spread of 3 points for this matchup seems pretty fair for the kind of game I think we’ll see unfold. But to get the Titans, on a 7-game cover streak, catching this many points is great value for a team that should be considered a live underdog. Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel has been outstanding in these situations, going 23-14 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 both straight up and ATS as a dog on short rest.

Plus, the Titans enter this game simply in better form than Green Bay, with more consistent play all season. It’s a matchup that favors them on the field, with the weather likely to keep this game primarily on the ground. That means a steady dose of Derrick Henry against the 30th-ranked defense in rush DVOA metrics. Tennessee has been making games ugly and close for weeks, and I expect nothing less tonight, giving them a great chance to stay inside this big number.

Under 47

I mentioned the weather, which is supposed to bring cold, snowy, and windy conditions to Lambeau Field tonight. That’s just going to be a further drag on two offenses that rank 25th and 26th in the league in scoring. The Packers are also 30th in pace, running a play every 30.2 seconds, while Tennessee is 32nd at 30.9 seconds, so this game will be played at a crawl. The under is now 17-7 in the past 24 Thursday Night Football games, and this extra cushion makes it an easy decision.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Derrick Henry Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

I mentioned Green Bay’s struggles against the run this season, but some deeper statistics point to a big game from King Henry here. The Packers are 28th in rushing yards allowed before contact, and 25th in yards allowed after contact. They’re also 32nd in defensive adjusted line yards and 31st in stopping runners for zero or negative yards. Henry is going to be getting downhill against this defense all night, and this is a bargain total for a man averaging 121.8 yards over his past 6 games.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Christian Watson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Watson has slowly been recovering from offseason surgery, dealing with additional injuries early this season, and has had to play catch-up with his enigmatic quarterback. But they seem to be slowly getting on the same page and building trust, as evidenced by his 107-yard outburst on Sunday. He’ll face a banged-up Titans secondary tonight that is likely missing top corner Kristian Fulton. While it doesn’t seem like great passing conditions tonight, this number is just a little too low for the most explosive receiver Green Bay has.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons/LA Clippers 1st Half Under 111 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SoCal

This number is wild, just absolutely crazy and far too high. Once again, oddsmakers are looking at overall first-half scoring being higher in the NBA this season, but not looking closely enough at these teams. Not only are the Pistons and Clippers 28th and 30th, respectively, in overall scoring, but they’re also the two lowest-scoring teams before halftime in the league.

Additionally, the Clippers are 5th in points allowed in first halves, part of their overall 2nd-rated defense this season. Both teams play at relatively slow paces, and the Pistons are the worst shooting team in the league. There’s also a laundry list of key injuries here, with Kawhi Leonard and Cade Cunningham out, as well as Paul George being a game-time decision. There just isn’t going to be enough offense from either team early on in this one, so take the under on this inflated number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 949-787 ATS (+88.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.