Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/15

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Bowling Green/Toledo Under 51 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Two important and correlated factors have me looking to the under in this MACtion game. The first is weather conditions, which are supposed to bring a rain/snow mix to Toledo for the majority of tonight’s game. That makes things difficult on any offense, and is a big driver of unders this time of year. But I see it having an outsized impact for these two teams.

The Bowling Green defense is very strong against the run, ranking 29th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but struggles against the pass. If the weather conditions can limit the Toledo pass attack, a strong Falcons run defense should slow down the ground game. But Bowling Green has struggled to run the ball all season at 111th in yards per game, so the one-dimensional Falcons will struggle in these conditions against the best defense in the conference. This game should lack explosiveness and see the clock constantly running, and that has me on the under.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Keegan Murray Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+135): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Murray started his rookie campaign absolutely on fire, both in general and from long range. While things have cooled down for him in recent weeks, a lot of that can be attributed to playing road games. He has not shot it well away from Golden 1 Center, including just 27.3% from deep and averaging 1.5 makes per game. Put Murray on his home court, though, and things go incredibly better.

That’s where he’s shooting 48.6% from long range and draining 3.6 three’s per game, going over this total in all 5 home games. I see it continuing here against the Brooklyn Nets, a team that’s very vulnerable to the 3-ball. The Nets allow the 11th-most attempts from deep, the 7th-most makes, and the 4th-highest three-point percentage. That should create all the opportunity needed for Murray to have another great home game and get over this total.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Appalachian State +6 @ Louisville (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Why Vegas, why? What possible reason would you have to line this Louisville dumpster fire as a favorite over anyone at this point? Other than to sucker in the public, who still hasn’t caught on that this name-brand program is at rock bottom. Don’t fall for it, even against a non-power conference team like Appalachian State. This Cardinals squad has lost two home games in a row against other non-power teams, and had a close call in the preseason against Chaminade. They should not be a favorite against any D-1 team right now, period, so take the points here.

Tiny Nick is 946-784 ATS (+88.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.