Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/14

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves ML @ Golden State Warriors (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This is not the Warriors team that bettors have known and loved for years, nor is this the Timberwolves team bettors have known and loathed for years. But Golden State still gets the advantage of their name brand to be installed as the favorite here, even though it was a fairly short number that smart money pushed down even further. A lot of the money coming in on Minnesota has to do with Steph Curry’s status as questionable for tonight, which would make things a lot easier on the league’s top-rated defensive team. The Wolves are 3-1 straight up as an underdog this season, and I’m willing to take a shot that they extend that record.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Rudy has come up short of this in back-to-back games now after pulling down 21 boards against the Pelicans last week. I don’t think that continues here against a Warriors team that’s always been undersized, so I see him improving on the 6-3 mark over this total on the year.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Philadelphia 76ers Over 239.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

Both the spread and total for this game are held down due to Joel Embiid being on the injury report with a hip issue. I’m surprised to see that since he played a standard number of minutes on Sunday, but his presence might not matter for this total. These teams combined for 263 points in Sunday’s meeting, and I’m reasonably confident that Embiid’s replacements can still help reach what is essentially a 23-point discount from that result.

That’s just how fast and high-scoring Indiana is, and a smaller 76ers lineup without Embiid might be more likely to engage in a track meet. The Pacers are scoring 126.0 PPG this season and 132.4 the past 5 games, and their contribution to the total is probably improved by an Embiid absence. With the scoring floor set that high, I’m willing to go over again in an Indiana game, because that’s just how you have to approach this team.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets -2.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

This is a little scary because if the Clippers ever figure it out with this roster, they could erupt in a hurry. But I’ll have to see it before I believe it, and right now all I’ve seen is 5 straight losses. Now they have to go on the road to visit the league’s most consistent home team, whose first half dominance stretches back several years.

The Nuggets have still found a way to make it work at home without Jamal Murray, especially against top-tier competition, and own a plus-4.8 average margin in home first halves this year. With the Clippers at a minus-3.0 average margin in road first halves, plus the elevation factor, I think this mess of a team gets off to another slow start tonight.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Bellarmine @ Chattanooga -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This game is a little off the beaten path, but it caught my attention right away. It’s just a mismatch in program quality, with Chattanooga always putting out a strong team and the market not catching up to how good they can be this year. Metrics sites also believe this number is far too short, with some as high as a double-digit win for the Mocs and KenPom making it a 6-point win. Bellarmine just doesn’t have the defense to slow down anyone, currently outside the top-300 in defensive efficiency, so the Mocs should grab a comfortable victory here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Carolina A&T/Virginia Over 133.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is obviously going to be a blowout, evidenced by the 31-point spread that Virginia is laying. But totals for Cavaliers games in the non-conference slate get a little too deflated because of how much they can lock down defensively on inferior teams. But when you have a blowout, low totals become more attainable, and I think that’s the case here.

Virginia has been pretty good offensively, especially by their standards, and it has come against better competition than this. NC-A&T enters this game with the 4th-worst adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the country, and Virginia can hang 100 if they so choose. That should create the blowout needed to get over this low total in spite of Virginia locking the Aggies down defensively.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Marquette/Illinois Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on FS1

Both of these teams and their coaches have shown a willingness to get out and run in non-conference games, and I think we should see a high-possessions game tonight. With the talent these teams have offensively, that style could feed on itself to create a game more in the 150’s that easily clears this total. Keep an eye on Tyler Kolek’s status for Marquette, as the Golden Eagles point guard is so important to his team’s highly efficient offense.

But with Kolek in the game, Marquette’s excellent passing can carve up an Illinois defense still finding its footing. Meanwhile, the size advantage for the Illini should earn them lots of easy points inside. Ultimately though, this should turn into an up-tempo affair between two teams with great scoring talent, making this total a little too low.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado State/Northern Colorado Over 155 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Things tend to get weird in Greeley, Colorado, site of this matchup, so the potential for overtime, foul fests, and other wildness definitely factors into the handicap here. But mainly it’s about this Colorado State offense looking like it’s back to the form of a couple years ago. The Rams still have Isaiah Stevens, one of the best scorers in mid-major college basketball, and he has led them to some impressive offensive showing so far.

Stevens and this fast-paced CSU offense should be able to exploit a defense from Northern Colorado that hasn’t played a D1 school yet. But the Rams haven’t looked great defensively either, which is partially a product of their past pace. Northern Colorado has been one of the most up-tempo teams of the past few years, so I think this game goes up and down the floor all night to cash the over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota +8.5 @ DePaul (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on FS2

DePaul is simply a play-against team for me right now, as the Blue Demons are playing some really ugly basketball. Consecutive home losses as a favorite to start this season is confirmation that it’s going to be a down season for them, and I don’t think they should be laying numbers like this. Not against an aggressive, up-tempo South Dakota team that has the shooting to stay in this game to the end. Smart money has been coming in on the Coyotes all night to push this number down, KenPom makes it an 8-point margin, and that has me taking the points with a live dog here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kentucky vs Kansas -6.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

This marquee matchup comes down to a question of experience and depth, both of which are massive advantages enjoyed by Kansas. Word is that Kentucky will be without all three of their 7-footers tonight due to injury, putting them in a really tough spot against Hunter Dickinson down low. I also think the defensive pressure from Kansas will frustrate a young and inexperienced Wildcats team, leading to turnovers and easy transition points for Kansas. Despite some preseason concerns, Kansas has really turned it on now that the games count, and I think this battle of KU versus UK sees the Jayhawks run away by double digits.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas City/Baylor Over 142 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Something has been horribly wrong with Baylor’s shooting from beyond the arc for two games in a row against poor competition. The Bears lit it up from deep in their opener against Auburn, but haven’t found the range since. I’m willing to bet it’s not a permanent problem, and the floodgates will open when it gets fixed. I want to be well-positioned on an over bet when that happens, and this deflated number that’s accounting their struggles is what I’m looking for.

Baylor won’t need to launch from deep tonight, as they can get whatever they want at the rim against Kansas City so the over is in play from those easy buckets as well. But add in some defensive struggles that keep showing up for the Bears, and I think we see an over on this discounted total tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1635-1452 ATS (+83.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.